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Sunday, 17 April 2016

Why am I not predicting BJP's latest election's results?

Hello folks,

This is a question that has been asked to me about a zillion times in person, on twitter, over the phone, by believers, skeptics, people I know, people I don't know....well you get the idea.

The genesis of this question actually lies in three posts that I have made. 

The first post was regarding BJP's chances in the general elections. Notably, at this time I did not know the proverbial 'A' of astrology and had in fact over a period of a long illness created a fairly heavy Excel model to mathematically predict the outcome for BJP alone. I had predicted 215 seats for BJP alone, remember this was in October 2013 when well financed experienced statistician with all the tools at their disposal were predicting about a 160 seats at most for the BJP. And I did not have the clairvoyance of jyotish then!

Then the second post was made in July 2015 and the third one was made around September 2015 predicting an reconfirming my projection for BJP's situation in the Bihar assembly elections. In both the posts I highlighted that BJP would lose Bihar and very badly in fact winning about 50-60 seats.

In addition to this I have made several predictions in politics regarding the shelving of the land bill, re-election of Amit Shah etc etc so it was natural for people to ask me to continue doing so in the upcoming elections. I am truly humbled by people's faith in my limited ability to try and interpret the will of the Gods. 

But here is a  practical aspect on why I am not making election predictions suo motu. Regular readers of my blog know, understand and appreciate that I try to keep even my wrong predictions on the blog. Sometimes I feel I know where I have gone wrong, other times I don't and I frankly write that I went wrong but I don't know what I did wrong. How else can one conduct an empirical study of jyotish in good faith?!

Anyway so coming back to the main question. I do not have the exact birth times of the candidates of the party leadership of the BJP and of its competitors. I need this to see their fates don't I? I have asked some people who claim to be close to the party leadership but I have been unable to get the correct or reliable data from them.

As my beloved readers know, that in absence of a natal chart I rely on a prashna chart. Prashna chart is not a second rung type of a thing. In fact in many cases I consider it to be an even better reflection of the future as the prashna chart exists for the sole purpose of answering one question and one question alone. 

The only limitation to the erection and correct interpretation of a prashna chart is that the asker must feel a genuine need to know the answer. A casual question cannot be answered. Just as you cannot take a life insurance policy on your unrelated neighbor's life, you cannot ask a prashna where you are not really interested in the answer. If the reason for the prashna is to prove me or the science of jyotish false, then I readily admit that I am a fool and jyotish is a lie, kindly do not waste your and ,what is infinitely more important to me, my time in analyzing casual or malicious questions.

I wish to stress that it is not the extent of the question but the gravity of it which is important. For example, a child may ask a question "will I get a chocolate today?" with much more gravity than someone asking "will Iran and USA sign their nuclear accord?"

So in the case of Bihar elections, I felt connected to the poll. The results would have affected the peace of my mind. I needed to know, I wanted to know. As such, I felt it right to cast a Prashna chart. I do not feel the same need in the case of West Bengal or Assam or anywhere else. And it is this reason why the same prashna asked at two different times, months apart with different 'seeds' gave me the EXACT SAME ANSWER. Indeed I did not feel it in the case of even Maharashtra where I reside! I cannot help what my mind unconsciously prioritizes :) Hence I did not ask these prashna's to myself.

So for the cases of other elections I would prefer questions coming from someone who is intimately connected with the polls. It would be the state party head of whichever main party is contesting. Or it can be the CM candidate. Or it can be the strategy head. I would not take question from a PT or a general supporter, only because I cannot divine if the need to know is genuine. Even a solitary candidate might be more interested in his own seat rather than the party's situation in the state as a whole.

So while discussing with someone on Twitter today, I mentioned I will happily solve this prashna if either Shri Narendra Modi ji or Shri Amit Shah ji asks me the question. It is not pride or some need to meet or communicate with them that prompts this response. It is because honestly I do not know any other person in BJP who has as much at stake in every poll that happens. 

If I were to take non-serious questions then my analysis will be wrong and I am likely to get wrong answers. This will shake my scientific study of astrology and that is wrong. If I use bad instruments then can the experiment itself be flawed? I want to avoid this situation altogether. 

In fact this is something I have learnt along the way of my Jyotish journey and in fact can attribute someone my earlier failures like in the case of will RK-KK get married etc to this 'non serious' nature of prashnas.

I know my regular readers will understand and appreciate the limitations of this science and support me. Thank you all!

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