Narrow wins and losses for BJP

 
Seats that I expect that will be won/lost by BJP by a margin lesser than 25,000 votes. I expect 87 seats to be such narrowly contested overall in my population space. Of these 62 are being narrowly won (29% of my overall prediction of BJP's seat tally of 215), and 25 being narrowly lost. I expect average margin of victory in such seats to be about 11,000 and average margin of loss to be about 12,000.

List given below. Believe it or not. I don't have a personal stake in any of them. Hope the relevant people to take notice and work harder.

Narrow wins

Madhya Pradesh: Bhind, Satna, Mandla (N), Ratlam (N), Khargone

Maharashtra: Dhule, Nagpur (N), Gadchiroli (N), Chandrapur, Palghar (N), Pune (N)

Chattisgarh: Bilaspur, Kanker

Karnataka: Gulbarga (N), Bellary, Upudi-Chikmangallur, Tumkur, Chikballur (N)

Bihar: Sitamarhi (N), Madhubani, Siwan (N), Sasaram (N)

Jharkhand: Godda, Lohardaga

UTs + NCR: Andaman/ Nicobar, Dadra/ NH, South Delhi (N)

Rajasthan: Churu, Jhunjhunu (N), Jaipur rural (N), Karauli Dholpur (N), Chittorgarh (N), Rajsamand (N)

Gujarat: Mahesana, Porbandar (N), Jamnagar (N), Amreli, Panchmahal, Bardoli (N)

Haryana: Faridabad (N)

Himachal Pradesh: Kangra

Uttar Pradesh: Lalganj (N), Deoria (N), Akbarpur (N), Faizabad (N), Gonda (N), Mirzapur (N), Varanasi, Amroha (N), Rampur (N), Fatehpur (N), Allahabad (N), Bahraich (N), Fatehpur sikri (N), Aligarh (N), Phoolpur (N), Maharajganj (N), Sitapur (N), Saharanpur (N)

Orissa: Mayurbhanj (N), Balasore (N)

Narrow losses

Madhya Pradesh: Indore (N)

Maharashtra: Bhiwandi

Chattisgarh: Durg (N)

Karnataka: Bidar (N), Davengere (N), Bangalore South

UTs + NCR: West Delhi

Punjab: Amritsar (N)

Rajasthan: Ajmer, Kota

Gujarat: Junagadh (N), Anand, Dahod, Bharuch (N)

Uttaranchal: Tehri Garwhal, Nanital Udhamsingh

Assam: Jorhat

Uttar Pradesh: Basti, Bulandshahr, Robertsganj, Domariyaganj, Nagina, Firozabad, Mohanlalganj, Shahjahanpur

N = seats which are giving effect opposite of the last time. eg. if a seat – Mandla was lost by BJP in the last elections and is being won now, it will have a ‘N’ suffix, and vice versa.

Election prediction for BJP

With the elections looming next year we have scores of pundits pontificating on polls on primetime. So I thought, why don’t I give it a shot. After all given their past records in forecasting, I can hardly do worse J

Anyway, I am not a statistician and given this handicap (or is it a strength?), I am not entirely convinced that a sample size of a 4-5,000 (a dozen or so respondents per constituency) will given prediction with any credible degree of accuracy. Imagine the same pool of a few thousand broken up into different constituency, different communities, different age groups, different age groups, different income groups etc etc. So how accurate can a statistical prediction be? I frankly don’t know. To my discredit of course.

What I have attempted to do is a seat-by-seat prediction across states. The calculation can be described as making some educated (and some uneducated) guesstimates of factors such as incumbency, increase in voting percentage, the Namo swing factor etc etc. In fact, the genesis of this calculation is the assumption that 2014 polls will be the most presidential style elections in India since perhaps the JP movement.

 
Let me first spell out the seat predictions, state-wise:

Uttar Pradesh                                         52 out of 80

Madhya Pradesh                                    25 out of 29
Karnataka                                               22 out of 28                                         
Bihar                                                   21 out of 40
Gujarat                                                19 out of 26
Maharashtra                                        15 out of 48
Jharkhand                                               12 out of 14
Rajasthan                                               11 out of 25
Chattisgarh                                             10 out of 11
Assam                                                05 out of 14
Haryana                                                  04 out of 10
Himachal Pradesh                                  04 out of 04
UTs+ NCR                                              03 out of 14
Orissa/ Odisha                                        03 out of 21
Punjab                                                 02 out of 13
Uttarakhand                                            02 out of 05
Goa                                                         01 out of 02
Arunachal Pradesh                                 01 out of 02
J&K                                                         01 out of 06
West Bengal                                        01 out of 42
Kerala                                                     01 out of 20
Total                                                     215 out of 454  

IBTL prediction                                      163 out of 543

Times Now Prediction                           162 out of 543
(based on IBTL tweet on 16^th Oct 13)

Andhra Pradesh (42 seats), Tamil nadu (39 seats) and north eastern states will be extras. I have not estimated these seats given the lower chances of BJP here and paucity of time for me. Anything here will be a bonus. I have assumed a 5% Namo vote share swing in Uttar Pradesh, but if this was to be 6% the seats would rise to 54 and if it was 10% the seats would be 65. But I have left it at 52 for the sake of being conservative. Notably, I assume BJP enters no alliances in UP pre poll.

I assume BSY will merge with BJP in Karnataka. The key point to be noted is that given the ‘quant’ nature of the estimates, these estimates make more sense when taken overall. For example, there are a lot of people who believe BJP will sweep the NCR in the Lok Sabha polls. However, my quant model does not give such results, hence I have given only 1 seat to BJP here. Similarly my estimates of MP and Karnataka may seem on the higher side compensated by Rajasthan and Gujarat that seem lower. But I have to apply the same logic uniformly to be sure I don’t unfairly penalise or give benefit to BJP.

While I do have some interesting observations, I do not have the time to detail them out now. One statement though: BJP has in the last 10 years given away a lot of easy seats to allies and even in a few places it was present it seemed comatose. Orissa for example where BJP used to win in several seats with a massive 30-50% vote share is now a distant dream for the party. West Bengal where BJP contestants get about 2-6% share of votes in virtually every seat has been ignored, as has the southern states. In fact, it seemed that the BJP leadership wanted to convert it into a JDU style regional party. However, it is my assumption and hope and prayer that the advent of Namo will change this comatose and lazy style of functioning and recharge the cadre to a national level.

As you can see under the table presented (above), my prediction is a more decisive than other polls (IBTL and Times Now) that appear to mirror each other. Are they too afraid to stray from consensus or am I plain wrong…only time will tell.

Party games!

Perhaps the longest held golden rule in Indian politics has been: Muslims and Christians vote en bloc while Hindu votes are scattered. So if you want to rule India, woo minorities, you can afford to ignore Hindus.

This rule has held due to a variety of reasons. One theory I’ve heard is the induced shame of their religion in the minds of the Hindus themselves. This makes them only apologetic Hindus and they vote ‘secular’ parties come election time. The other theory is based around Hindus being divided along caste lines causing political parties pander to that particular caste PLUS Muslims/ Christians. This causes a chunk of Hindus belonging to a particular group to vote for or against a particular Party. There is one more theory that there a bunch of Hindus would like to vote en masse for a Hindu-focussed party but have been disappointed with such partys. For example, while ABV provided a great government at the India level, they did very few things that a Hindu party was expected to do (e.g. Uniform Civil Code, Article 370 etc). There could be many more reason (even contradictory to ones mentioned) that have led to the golden rule being so successful till now, but they are not important for this post.

However, with the advent of Narendra Modi (Namo) this golden rule that scores of secular dynasties have built their mansions by no longer appears to hold. For the first time, the majority of Hindus appear to be converging under the BJP’s banner while the minority votes split among the various parties that profess secularism. This change in the established dynamic is unsurprisingly catastrophic for many established politicians in India. A classic deer in the headlights syndrome. They just don’t know what to do…and they are floundering.

So how does this change impact the fabric of Indian politics. Hmm. There are three types of Indian politicians as far as the golden rule of secularism (the way they define it anyway) is concerned. Some are completely wedded, even blinded, by it for political reasons (and perhaps other reasons best known to them). The second category is people who use it extensively for its electoral convenience and the third is the category that is considered ‘communal’ by the media or is not concerned with ‘secularism’ much.

The Congress, Communists, Muslim League etc, easily fall into the first category. Congress is the prime example that is so, so ‘secular’ that many online commentators consider them actively anti-Hindu (I reserve expressing my opinion on this here). This category will find it exceptionally hard to change tracks. In fact they are so blinded by the rule that has worked so well for so long they probably don’t even think they need to change, forget wanting to or being able to even if they wanted to.

Parties like Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP), Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), Trinamool Congress (TMC), DMK, AIADMK, Biju Janata Dal (BJD) etc are in my opinion in the second category. Most of these were primarily personality based, caste based or region based identity politics parties, in fact they are what I like to call ‘accidental secularists’.

Parties like BJP, Shiromani Akali Dal, Shiv Sena etc fall into the third category. They have not benefited from any sort of secularism. In fact, BJP suffered between 1998 till date because its core constituency thought that is has deviated too far from its Hindutva (true secularism, some might say) in its pursuit of Indian style ‘secularism’.

With Narendra Modi led BJP growing in popularity, a lot of commentators have said that BJP will not find partners to form the next government. Because these geniuses are unable or unwilling to categorise political parties a little bit more subtly like I have done here. Category I seculars will of course not align with BJP at all. Category III will almost always be with the BJP barring any personality issues or conflicts.

The category that is most interesting is category II. It is this category that MSM is assuming will remain steadfast in its opposition to BJP, and this assumption is wrong.

With the allegedly increasing Bangladeshi presence in W. Bengal, and no signs of a revival of a Hindu identity yet in WB it is in TMCs interest to continue with its secular line for now. However a post election alliance is not ruled out. Though I still remain an advocate for BJP to foray aggressively into WB to establish its own base there. I am sure there is a fair sized constituency that want a BJP like option to vote for, that as of now seems absent.

Given the rapport that BJD and AIADMK enjoy with Narendra Modi I believe these two parties will also align with  BJP but mostly post election. BJD is largely a region/ state focussed party and AIADMK is a community focussed party, so for both Indian style secularism while desirable is not crucial for political survival. I expect both to join NDA after elections. It makes sense for them to keep their options open before elections just to hedge their bets. If BJP comes out in lead I think it’s a sealed deal. BJD may support NDA from outside while AIADMK may like to join NDA with a few ministerial berths.

Sharad Pawar’s NCP is the easiest one. He left Congress to form NCP solely on Sonia Gandhi’s foreign issue (and perhaps his own disappointment of not being able to become PM). But within short time did a volte-face to support Congress at the centre and state. In this he is bested only by Mulayam Singh of SP. Anyway, this is what we expect of Sharad Pawar, one of the most astute politician in the last half century in India. India’s version of Teflon Tony in some ways. If BJP were to come out in front, I have little doubt that NCP will join NDA. In fact a confirmation of this would be if after elections are declared NCP has some ‘disagreements’ on seat sharing with the Congress in Maharashtra state and then ‘suddenly’ decides to go it alone.

JD(U) is the saddest case IMHO. It partnered with BJP for the longest time and they have done some good work together. It was an interesting arrangement. JDUs Nitish Kumar became the CM of Bihar in partnership with the BJP. The leader of JDU, Mr. Sharad Yadav who was then politically senior to Nitish Kumar, became the convener of NDA and elevated himself to national status. He was likely to coordinator between BJP and JDU as well. As time passed, media gave a lot of attention to Nitish and despite being junior to Sharad in party political terms he became more popular than him. This has to hurt anyone, especially a politician who are said to live by popularity numbers. It is believed by some people that given his long absence from ground politics in Bihar, Sharad Yadav is dependent on his political survival on Nitish Kumar who likely has more actual control of the party-cadre machinery in Bihar. It is widely understood that Nitish has recently gotten into his head that he himself is Prime Ministerial material. That he has tried to scuttle BJP’s nomination of Narendra Modi’s PM nominationis visible to the most casual observer. Nitish’s higher relative popularity and Sharads political dependence on him may have forced Sharad Yadav to toe this hardline by Nitish eventually leading to a break-up between one of the most fruitful political partnerships in recent years. Now the situation is that Sharad Yadav’s job of national level coordination has been made redundant! He has no national presence without partnership with the BJP and he has no local power without support from Nitish Kumar. It is a difficult period for him. How will he handle his political future? He knows JDU faces an uphill task going it alone against BJP even locally in Bihar as Nitish’s behaviour may have cost JDU some popularity. While Nitish gave the usual secular argument to break ranks with NDA and BJP even he should know he cannot actually bank on this as vote pulling tool. Not with Congress and Lalu Yadav doing so too. This is exactly what I meant when I said that secular votes will be divided! The only way out I see for Sharad Yadav is to break ranks with Nitish Kumar. Whether it will actually happen or not, or on what issue the break will happen is anybody’s guess, but for Sharad, I don’t see how else can he become relevant again on a national or even regional level. So If someone had to stick their neck out and make a prediction, I would not be surprised if the prediction was for Sharad Yadav to part ways to Nitish Kumar and then carve out a new identity for himself with BJP’s help. If this happens Nitish will go the Lalu way. If Sharad Yadav stays with Nitish, then given the Modi wave, both will go the Lalu way J

Speaking of Lalu, he would have been most worried if JDU had aligned with the Congress which would in turn have no use for Lalu’s RJD party. But Congress is the new untouchable thanks to the massive, massive corruption of the last ten years, so JDU has declined to align. This has put JDU ins a very weak position as mentioned above, allowing breathing room for Lalu. I don’t expect Lalu to create a grand comeback but yes he will gain from JDUs predicament.

SP and BSP are the two parties that control between them the most important state (electorally) in India: Uttar Pradesh (UP). BSP, run by Mayawati, caters to the so-called lower castes (dalits) among hindus but has over the past few years tried to attract the Brahmins that constitute a sizeable chunk (~12%) of UP’s population. SP is an out and out Yadav and Muslim party. To the point that I’ve seen Mulayam Singh Yadav (MSY) who runs SP being referred to as Mullah-yam Singh on social media in the past. MSY and Mayawati are bitter rivals and stories of their rivalry are legend. Ever since BJP lost its foothold in UP, the power pendulum here has shifted between BSP and SP almost alternatively. BSP and SP are also bitter rivals. Given this rivalry people are surprised to see them supporting the same government in centre even as they wrestle it out at the state level. The reason that is widely speculated by many is that the Congress has some legal sword hanging over SP and BSP bosses and the CBI is used to blackmail them into submission. As such I will not be surprised to know if both SP and BSP have severe animosity towards the Congress. After all, no one likes to be used and abused for so long. So how will BSP and SP behave?

SP is right now ruling UP. It massively favours its Muslim voters over Hindus, atleast that is the public perception IMHO. The recent riots in Muzzafarnagar has polarised Hindus and Muslims in the state. More so caused by the selective news leaks, biased reporting, biased action and selective visits to communities. A senior Muslim leader in SP, who has long being a power centre on to himself is IMHO using this tragedy to increase his hold on the party putting the father son duo of MSY-Akhilesh Yadav (CM) in some consternation. Ordinarily this religious polarisation would not have bothered MSY so much. Because he would still know that Muslims would rally behind SP anyway. Hindu so-called backward castes would be divided between SP and BSP and some other regional players. Part of the Hindu vote would go to BJP, whose vote share would go up but too much to worry SP. But, Narendra Modi’s advent means that Hindu’s see BJP as a true right of centre party rather than the pale reflection it had become over the last decade. So the polarisation may not be among caste lines any more. All Hindus whether so-called upper or lower castes will rally behind BJP. It is this that makes SP win more difficult. It is this fear that is causing the senior Muslim leader in SP to act so much in haste to make it hardline pro-Muslim pitch. Because Hindus were anyway not his personal core constituency. This worries MSY who cant afford this hardline pitch because he would still want some Hindus to vote for SP. This is a clear conflict of interest. While MSY debates with this situation in his mind, his Muslim colleague will milk this situation to the maximum. He will make it seem like he alone is fighting for minority rights while his bosses dilly dally. In fact this riot related polarisation is perhaps exactly what he was waiting for to make a grab for power. In fact, this has been in a gruesome way a lucky stroke for this guy, almost too lucky. Hmm.  If MSY doesn’t back down, which he cant without losing his identity within his own party first, this leader will cause a break in the party. I will not be surprised if SP breaks up, whether the break-up is cosmetic or genuine is not important at this time. The new hardline group will have a constituency, the other one will flounder around for a couple of years (if that) and fade away for all practical purposes. In other words, I believe the beginning of the political career end for the MSY family has begun.

BSP on the other hand is also facing difficult times. However having been a little bit further on the secularism scale versus SP, and having a sort of insulated voting constituency, Mayawati may yet survive to fight again another day. But for now she will be a diminished force in the face of the Narendra Modi onslaught.

This has been a bit of a long post, perhaps not the most articulate. But given the nature of Indian politics I don’t know if it could have been any more articulate at all. To summarise, Narendra Modi is a force of the sort that has not so far emerged in the history of independent India. Not only does Modi bring a strong ideological backing but has actually delivered on development objectives with minimal wastages and without favouring any one community over the other. He belongs to a so-called lower caste but has never used it as a easy tool for political gain. He reportedly does not like hangers on and is beyond the politics of favours and fear. He is a complete outsider to the Delhi culture of adjustment versus development. He is also a outsider culturally (as mentioned in my last post) making him the ultimate weapon of the sort that has not been faced by any of the old boys club. His ideological background will bring right wing Hindus over to his side, his casteless politics and true democratic distribution of wealth and power will bring the on-the-fence Hindus to him. This will change many things in Indian politics, many masks will be removed, many ‘seculars’ will fall and many parties will be divided as predicted above. For the first time, Hindus will vote as a vote bank, upsetting established equations, perhaps forever. And Modi will find many partners while doing this, much to the chagrin of the mainstream media :)

Why people hate Narendra Modi?

This is a question that has baffled me quite a bit. For the longest time justified their hate (cant really think of another word to describe their reaction to him) by citing his role in abetting the tragic 2002 post Godhra train burning riots. While they may have felt their anger justified soon after the riots, it should logically have abated after the court appointed investigations have all but exonerated Namo from any alleged role in the riots. But that has not happened and these people still are all fire and brimstone over what has happened.

In the earlier post (http://megadodopublication.blogspot.in/2013/08/the-curious-logic-of-hate.html), I have briefly touched upon the brainwashed nature of this hate. However that is applicable to the ‘opinion takers’ amongst us. Lay people, or people who live abroad and try to sound intelligent about India or just the general populace whose daily information dose consists of taking their opinions from Main Stream Media (MSM), rather than forming their own through an application of brains.

However, in this post I want to look closer what why drives the hate of ‘opinion makers’. Ie the people who are in the position of influencing the opinion of ‘opinion takers’. This would normally consist of people who like to interact with a whole bunch of other people: journalists, editors, think tanks, politicians, ‘intellectuals’, celebrities, talking heads on TV panels etc etc. Why should they hate Narendra Modi? The answer that comes to my mind, albeit perhaps incorrect, is that they are simply discriminating against him, but are afraid to do so openly.

Before I explain, I want to highlight a study I briefly read about in (I think) an excellent book ‘Freakonomics’ by Levitt and Dubner. The study was to highlight the racism that continued to exist in sections of America but how it was hidden or channelled differently. The study used the then popular game show ‘The weakest link’ to showcase its theory. The game consists of 6-8 contestants who each answer trivia questions by turn. For each correct answer money gets added to the prize kitty. The game proceeds through multiple rounds and at the end of each round the players collectively to vote out one person from amongst them. Finally the person remaining in the end wins the pot collected through the series of right answers during the game. In the first few rounds it makes sense to vote out the weakest players so that the pot grows bigger. In the later rounds it makes sense to eliminate the strongest players so that the final rounds one has to face only a ‘easy’ opponent. Now the social movements that demonised discrimination against blacks and women are the freshest in ones memory. As such, someone playing on the show with the nation watching would not like to take the risk of being seen as a racist or a sexist. So it appears that the elimination of these two classes of contestants (blacks and females) did not seem to follow the logic of elimination elucidated earlier. But this does not mean the ‘discrimination’ itself vanished. The study found that the targets of discrimination shifted to Hispanics and senior citizens. So Hispanics were voted out in earlier rounds even if they did well etc etc. So the disease of discrimination remains, but the carriers only show it in a different way. For more on this, please read the book I mentioned earlier and/ or have a look at this: http://www.wattpad.com/334172-freakonomics?p=32

Now why do I think the story above is relevant to the ‘opinion maker’ hate of Narendra Modi and the use of 2002 riots to justify it. The reason is simple, Narendra Modi is not ‘one of them’. Consider the senior politicians and journalists and other opinion makers that exist today. Many of them have a ‘pedigree’, atleast in their minds of sorts. A pedigree that comes from belonging to a certain family with a certain surname or having a certain bank balance or a certain award or then having gone to a certain type of school or even the people with whom they have gone to a school with. A simple wiki search for some of the senior editors of MSM and politicians will indicate to you what I am trying to say. Now contrast this with Narendra Modi’s wiki (excerpts below):

“Modi was born on 17 September 1950 to a family of grocers in Vadnagar in Mehsana district of what was then Bombay State (present-day Gujarat), India. While a teenager, Modi ran a tea stall with his brother around a bus terminus.[14] He completed his schooling in Vadnagar, where a teacher described him as being an average student but a keen debater. He began work in the staff canteen of Gujarat State Road Transport Corporation (GSRTC), where he stayed till he became a full–time pracharak (propagator) of the RSS. Modi remained a pracharak in the RSS while he completed his Master's degree in political science from Gujarat University.”

Once you read both the sets of data, you can see why one set of ‘opinion makers’ discriminate against Namo. BUT, BUT, BUT…that is not considered socially acceptable, so this set needs to bring out a acceptable reason to justify their hate for him. Another reason for discrimination could likely be Narendra Modi belonging to a so-called lower caste. This also is not an acceptable reason (morally reprehensible in fact) of hating someone. So again, they bring out the bogey of 2002 riots to justify their hate of him, which is in fact, IMHO, caste-ist and class-ist.

Let me illustrate this point by an example. For a minute forget everything you have read above here. Lets say you are back in 1940s in the USA when blacks were still discriminated against to some extent. Now one morning you open a newspaper and read a story of a first time elected black governor of a state in the mid-west of USA. He is one of the few black politicians around. He has come up from a very humble background, worked very hard, studied in local universities, did a lot of social work and through his dint of hard work and determination broke through the not-so-glass glass ceiling and got elected governor. He manages the state very well, in fact it is the best managed state in the entire country in the opinion of many. However one day, things take a turn for the worse and there is a violent incident in the state. That incident prompts a violent reaction. The first-time governor takes immediate action but is sadly unable to prevent the loss of lives associated with a spontaneous social conflagration. Despite his quick control of the situation, this black governor is accused of being complicit in the riots. Lies are invented by the editors and journalists and NGOs to vilify this governor. Incidents that have never happened are passed around MSM as gospel truth. The Government orders all sorts of hearings and enquiries against this governor. The Governor too humbly submits to all these multiple investigations to clear any doubts and instil confidence in the people. While these enquiries are on, the governor also wins three elections, getting a vote of confidence of sorts from the people who actually suffered in the events that he is accused of engineering. The US Supreme court finally orders a thorough all-encompassing enquiry against the black gent in which he is given a clean chit. This is in addition to all the other enquiries that have not been able to find anything on the governor earlier. Finally the people feel that the matter has been settled and the process of healing can begin. However, the media and the opposition governor candidate and his acolytes continue to accuse the governor of the same crimes he has been all but completely exonerated of. The same accusations continue to be repeated in the national media and opposition speeches while the lone governor continues to do good work for the people of his state. End of story. Important to note that this is a hypothetical example made up to illustrate a point, in no way reflective of my opinion of the USA which I consider the biggest meritocracy today.

Now for what would you say this governor is targeted for by the ‘majority’ of his country. For any actual criminal act? No…the courts and investigations have prima facie rejected that. For his economy and development focus….? Perhaps not, who doesn’t like good roads and prosperous industry.  Then what? His skin colour and background? Hmm.

Now compare the situation of this hypothetical black governor with whats happening to Narendra Modi today. You will have the answer to the question asked in the title of the post.

The curious logic of hate

I recently watched one of Derren Brown’s shows: Something Wicked This Way Comes. The Show is the usual hotch-potch of Derren’s tricks and magic. The most interesting thing for me was that right at the beginning of the show, Derren had written down a word and handed it in confidence to an audience member (who hadn’t opened the envelope). The after all the evenings festivities, Derren handed out a bunch of different newspapers then the audience chose a random paper, a random page and on that page a random word. At each seemingly random stage, Derren asked if the audience wished to change their choice of newspaper or page or word, but no one budged. Then Derren grandly unveiled the word he had written down at the beginning of the show and it was the same as this seemingly randomly and freely chosen word: INFLUENTIAL.

A grand end to the show with Derren revealing that he had even written down the name of the newspaper (Daily Mail) and the page number (14) that would be chosen. He then went on to reveal how he did it. He had subliminally planted the words “Daily, Mail, page 14, influential” repeatedly and surreptitiously. Then when the time to choose came, people chose exactly what Derren wanted them to. People chose what they felt deep in their hearts was ‘right’. But they were being brainwashed to not only choose what their handler wanted, but also brain washed to forget they were brainwashed.

Coming to the blog. It is this show that somehow explained to me how otherwise apparently intelligent people hate Narendra Modi. In fact, a lot of prior engagements have taught me that people will make a complete fool of themselves in digging for a logical basis to hate Modi. While there are several examples on my facebook page, I cant be asked to dig all of them out. So here is a recent discussion on Twitter that exposes the circuitous logic of the ‘programmed’. I am of course hiding the identity of the other side, because that is not relevant. This is basically the thought process of almost everyone who hates Narendra Modi for no reason. Just like it was for Derren audience. Remember, Derren had about an hour to program his audience and it worked. Our MSM and cocktail party gang has had over a decade!

It started with this tweet:

XYZ @xyz

The hatred and Ram Mandir is also diverting attention from more important issues like our economic mess. Any discourse on that? No? ok.

Presumably this was expressing anguish at a recent visit of Amit Shah to Ayodhya to pray at the Ram Mandir. While the case for a temple has pretty much been vindicated in the court, BJP’s stand has been than only through, court order or consensus or legislation will a temple be constructed at the site. So I am unsure why this person thought visiting a Ram temple is hateful or why each temple visit diverts attention. His “any discourse on that? No? Ok” implies that this person believes that all discourse on economics has stopped.

To which I replied:

namo has been talking development last 10 years. No one listening? Ok.

 

XYZ @xyz

What's his plan to get India back to 8% growth? sorry if I missed that part. Seriously.

Ok, now this person is intelligent. He knows he has been caught out on the discussion of economic issues. So he quickly changes the goal post. He now specifically asks if Namo has spelled out his plan to get India back to 8% growth. From “Any discussion on economics” to an answer to a very specific question is now the new standard.

Me:

Odd you dont demand that answer from congress. Khair. Modi has done wonders with guj if u see the ideas he presents in various fora

can be applied to india at large. Broadly: use IT to curb leaks, create infra, set institutions etc. Pick out 3 of his conclaves.

At this point I am thinking this person is genuinely unaware (versus deliberately uninformed or ignorant), so I am still giving answers which are quite self explanatory. I am saying Namo outlines his plans in various fora and a lot of his state-level ideas can be applied to the country at large.

XYZ @xyz

LOL. I demanded that answer from Congress and look what they've done.

This is a classic tactic by Modi haters. After the recent spate of boo-boos by this government, they are ashamed to publicly acknowledge themselves as Congress voters, hence they try and write them off immediately, so that THEY don’t have be answerable for anything, but are free (in their mind) can come out with a litany or pointless questions.

XYX @xyz

that all is structural change which will take time to show gains. It is required no doubt. But what about next 1-2 years?

But he cant ignore the facts that I have placed before him. So the goal posts change a second time. From only discussing economic issues, now this person puts the additional condition of a time limit! This has begun to now get ridiculous.

Me:

only reason he is not explicitly saying I can apply this for india is obvious. He isnt official pm nom. It wud be political stupidity

This is actually disconnected from the original messages I was typing. How can Namo be expected to talk of a national policy when he has not been anointed as BJP’s national candidate? This political reality should be clear to a 5 year old who follows Indian politics and knows the compulsions of coalitions and Namo’s opponents in his own party. But...

XYZ @xyz

political stupidity? He can engage in a debate, express his views in media. You don't have to wait. See in the US

This person disagrees. Which is fair. He wants Namo to dance to his tunes, its not illegal to expect people to do what you want. Only illegal to force them. This person who probably will never vote for Namo wants Namo to plan his strategy they way he wants it. While Namo wants to frame his strategy as he himself wants. This is a disagreement, but a fair one. Which is what I humbly point out next:

Me:

hw he outlines his plans is upto him. Unfair 1 shud ask for a years plan. If he had given a years plan ud have said where r structural

Me:

changes! He does engage in debates watch them! Go on youtube. Check his q/a wuth raghav bahl!

To be fair this was a bit of a jibe from me J to tell him I realise what he is doing, that he will continue to change goal posts. But I also kindly tell him where he can find a economics based debate with an anchor if he so wishes.

XYZ @xyz

and I think the UK has a concept of Shadow Cabinet as well. He can easily find a way, he's that smart (I mean in a good way)

From first asking for a US style debate, now the example of UK is given. An attempt is made to insult Modi as well. Which is ok, this is his opinion and he is entitled to it. However stupid it is.

XYZ @xyz:

no, I wouldn't have said that all. Structural stands irrespective. But structural takes min 3-5yrs to show gains

XYZ @xyz

boss those are all debates on Ram and stuff. The media plays that card because that's what sells.

But again he can’t ignore the facts I have pointed out so then tries to dismiss them. So he takes on the structural jibe of mine from my last tweet.  Then he lies about the debate. He could not have watched in between the time we were tweeting. But he categorically says that the debate with Raghav Bahl is on “ram and stuff”(I wonder if he would have the guts to say “<insert secular god name> and stuff”). Now that is a lie. This is what I mean, from looking like fools that change goal posts to lying about debates they havent watched is quite pathetic in my book. Brainwashing coming into play. But he cleverly tries to blame the media for this thinking I would let it go.

 

 

Me:

I think after 10 years of congress 3 years to waise bhi lagna hain

thats not true. If I send you youtube links where non ram issues are being discussed will you change your stance?

shadow cabinet has been suggested to him by many incl me. But only he can decide his strategy not u/I na. Unfair want him 2 do exactly

as we want. Next what quarterly projections? !:))

I followed it with a few tweets that basically stated the fact that for a country with 1200 million people, with mismanagement for the last ten years, three years is not a long time for changes to be visible. I offered to then send him links to debate where “ram and stuff” is not being discussed. Also, I agreed in principle that perhaps its time for a shadow cabinet with the caveat that while he and I may feel this (one more genuinely than the other perhaps), but its unfair to expect Namo to do exactly what we like. Especially when you keep changing the goal posts.

XYZ @xyz

obviously! send them, but they should have specifics of policy (fiscal deficit, CAD, etc).

Now he takes advantage of the help I offer to saying now I should sort out the videos to specific issues. Again when confronted with truth, the goal post changed from non “ram and stuff” issues to two specific issues.

IT IS WORTH NOTING AT THIS STAGE THAT THE ORIGINAL GRIPE THIS PERSON HAD IS THAT MODI IS ONLY TALKING ABOUT LORD RAM AND ABSOLUTELY NOTHING ABOUT ECONOMIC ISSUES. NOW HERE HE HAS LOST THE DEBATE WITH ME BY NOT ASSERTING THAT ANY MORE BUT NOW GOING ON A TANGENT ISSUES WITH SPECFIC ECONOMIC ISSUES AND SHIFTING TIME FRAMES.

Me:

in fact 4 10 yrs namo spoke only dvlpmnt n media did hindu Muslim. Nw if amit s mentions ram u say why ram talk dvlp. Wow.

At this point, I point out the hypocrisy of his clique.

XYZ @xyz

next is debates and discourse. I get that Hindutva is required for votes. But Hindu pride alone won't get 8% GDP growth

Now this person again tries to be condescending but saying “Hindutva is required for votes” and trying to surreptitiously forward his point that only Hindutva is being discussed. But then makes the mistake of lying again. He implies that Namo is suggesting that Hindu pride alone will get us 8% GDP growth. So I ask him for the source:

Me:

do u have a quote from namo that says only hindu pride enough for 8% growth. Or has his work in guj been so for u to infer this?

he has done nothing like this. This is msm story playing.

prhps he has a plan ready. I think he does. You and I want him to reveal it today. He might be waiting for poll call. Who knows?

my ltd point is broad brushing that namo is only taking religion when what he us doing is almat exactly opposite is wrong.

I gently point out above that what he is saying is the MSM (main stream media) programming playing through him. I also point out that he is lying when he says that Namo is talking about religion when he isnt doing so at all.

XYZ @xyz

the ram is all over Mumbai - that's what I'm talking about. Even Modi knows Ram sells more than development

Again, he refers to Lord Ram in a flippant manner trying to make me lose my temper to give him some semblance of victory in a debate that he has lost several tweets back. Notably, what he tweets is again a lie. In fact I had bet him to post a photo of Modi extolling “the Ram” on any hoarding outside his window, I would have won the bet. I think what he was referring to is Namo’s comment that went something like: “I am a patriot, a nationalist. I was born a hindu. So by that logic you can say I am a Hindu Nationalist”. This statement was made by Namo in reply to a specific questioned asked by an interviewer and not on his volition. A few of his supporters had put up a few posters praising Namo for this comment. But it certainly wasn’t all over Mumbai and the posters certainly were not put up by Modi himself. In fact Modi did not make that statement with a jingoistic mindset, with the interviewer who had asked him his question herself clarifying this. Also, now this person is actually telling me that he knows what Modi knows. I do not profess similar powers of clairvoyance and thus resist to give my opinion on this.

XYZ @xyz

I don't have a quote from Namo saying *anything* is enough for 8% growth, leave alone Hindu pride. Don't mix Guj in this.

no I don't want him to reveal it today. He can reveal whenever. I want him to give just a few ideas out of that plan.

Interestingly, now he doesn’t want me to talk of Namo’s work in Gujarat. But he is the CM of that state. How can I not use what he does in this ‘debate’. Its like saying I can easily knock out Mike Tyson. But only if you tie his hands and legs and chloroform him and give me a hammer.

Next he actually reaffirms that he was lying when he says he has no quote from Modi on anything. But so far he was so sure about what his debates were about. Even what Modi knew. Then he makes an even more startling observation that he doesn’t want Namo to reveal his specific 1 or 2 year plan that he wants today. Huh? If you don’t, then what were you complaining about in your original tweet? Its like a child complaining about the taste of his next dinner when he isnt yet hungry enough for his breakfast yet! But then he says, he wants Namo to give a few ideas to him.

XYZ @xyz

Gujarat is only one state and that he's done a great job is beyond doubt. Accepted. What next?

Huh? That didn’t even make sense.

XYZ @xyz

I'm not asking for an exact, precise, Budget and a policy. He can give an idea, some suggestions, just a few action points

Importantly he has now lost his debate for a 1-2 year plan. He now asks for “an idea, some suggestions, just a few action points”. In my naivety I suggest a few things that Namo has done, to my limited knowledge:

Me:

in what area? Judicial reform? He has done it. E governance he has done it. Power sector mgmt he has done it. You haven't listened!

he has mate. Haven't you seen hos rural development m wastewater management idea he gave a study to the pm on?

XYZ @xyz

waste water management? seriously? yeah ok, got it. Thanks.

Again, the weapon of the defeated, a one last stab at condescension. Ok, one more stab, as below:

let me try this again. Imports? Subsidies? Food Security? Manufacturing? Labor Laws? Taxation? Oil pricing? Gas pricing?

Implying that it is I who has not understood that this great person has to try again. But again he lies. He asked for “an idea, some suggestions, just a few action points” now when I point out several, he picks out one he thinks is silly to try and ridicule me. Ignoring the ones that he cant ridicule without looking more foolish himself. In any case, I think his curiosity should be satisfied when Ive given him 3-4 examples when all he wanted was “An idea” (ONE). Another change in goal post.

Me:

2 mins back you said some colour on some national policy is good. Now I pointed it our ur saying not enough.

"an idea, some suggestions. .." your words not mine. Mate I get where ur coming from now. It's ok.

At this point I thought there was little point in continuing this conversation. What I mistook for genuine curiosity was nothing but hate which felt ‘righteous’. In the quest for what felt ‘right’ this otherwise apparently intelligent person changed goal posts multiple times and even lied on a few occasions. I realised that much as I would want him to change his stance or even just acknowldge the truth, it won’t happen, but a certain stand felt right. I could answer all the questions and conditions, but would be met with new ones, new goal posts, new lies. Why? Because that just ‘felt’ right. Just like Derren’s brainwashed audience.

The Great Indian Land Trick

Its been sometime since I last blogged, been busy with a whole bunch of personal stuff and also being flabbergasted at how the Indian economy is being run into the ground. Anyway, here I am, but only to chronicle a pet conspiracy theory that occurred to me. It is one that I have mentioned countless time to a whole bunch of people over the last two or three years but only now putting down in writing. At the outset let me apologise for the long winded blog, but the matter is such that it required some details. In any case I do not consider this my most articulate work and hope people can wade through the messiness and get to the crux.

Let me start of with a short story of an advertisement I saw in 2010, on a large hoarding in Bandra for a property being developed in Kurla. I asked to be contacted by a sales representative thinking perhaps it was time that I invested in some real estate in Mumbai. Receive a call I did, and what a call it was. The sales guy told me the minimum price for a 1,000 sq ft flat, was Rs 50 million, approximately US$ 1 million at the exchange rates then. This was a ridiculously brazen price for an apartment in Kurla, one of ‘less nice’ suburbs, least safe as well in event of a communal conflagration. Consider this, for US$ 1 million I could get an apartment in Zurich, one of the top three most expensive cities in the world. Zurich, with its rational tax structure, excellent infrastructure, virtually zero crime, brilliant health services, public transport you can set your watch to, great education, superlative life style etc etc etc. On the other hand, spending the same amount for a flat in Mumbai, what does one get? Even if the construction is not shoddy, once you step out of the flat, you have the same bad roads, beggars and eunuchs at the car window, bribe taking government officials, high taxation, bad climate and none of the other benefits that one would associate with a million dollar pigeon hole!

That set me thinking on why a poor country like India where 300 million people live in abject poverty and many millions more near enough to not matter have such expensive apartments? What has caused this price rise? Who is buying these shanties priced like palaces?

The conspiracy theory is like this:

After the condemnable, gruesome attacks by Jihadis on the US on September 9^th, 2001, the world changed. The fight that so far was being fought somewhere else in the world and was only TV news for Americans, became a tragic reality. The US was not likely to take this lying down and launched a multi pronged attack on the terrorists where ever they may be hiding. One of the aspects of this campaign was to cut off the financial assistance to terror groups. In this regard, the US started to clamp down on tax havens and shadow banking territories. Sooner or later, publicly or privately, many succumbed and handed over secret banking data to the US.

The surprising outcome of this was that allegedly, a lot of Indians who have allegedly stashed their illegal earnings outside India came under pressure as their hidden banking accounts were also ‘inadvertently’ targeted. They have little choice but to move their money elsewhere, but where?! Perhaps Macau/ China which could stand up to US pressure was not as developed as a banking centre yet. My guess is the real urgency was not felt till until 2005 or 2006 perhaps. Anyway, so money had to be moved into something else. One option was gold, and perhaps that is one of the reasons due to which the yellow metal has jumped so much, but not so high to adequately compensate for an international central bank failure, as is normally hypothesised. Plus, not a whole bunch of gold can be bought without significant paperwork.

So the corrupt politicians started repatriating their ill-gotten gains back to India. There were two obvious choices for this money to flow to: a) the stock market and b) land. And it seems to have gone here too!

However, after the stock market crash in 2008 proved a bitter lesson in karma to such politicians. Market is of course the great leveller! However despite the really bad real situation in India the market is still holding on to the 18K-20K levels (Sensex) suggesting that perhaps atleast there is some element of management to protect the capital already invested. On a side note, this is why I am cautious of the Indian stock market in general. It has not had a cleansing crash for the economic bloopers of the last few years. So every rise is perhaps seen by this ‘black money’ as an opportunity to get out. And who do they sell to when they get out, to people like you and me, who are left holding the baby, the baby that has been artificially pumped up on steroids with no real value discovered.

Anyway, I digress…so basically for various reasons real estate was the only asset left to this black money. In fact it offered TWO HUGE advantages that neither gold nor equity can offer to this particular ‘class’ of investors: a value black hole and soaking up cash.

A lot of land in India is agricultural land that can only be bought by someone who has a ‘farmer’ status. This farmer status is an unwritten caste system almost that gets passed on as a hereditary thing based on similar land being owned by ones ancestors. Land holdings are small and thanks to economic mismanagement the owners (farmers) are usually poor and willing to sell land. The land value is noted in government records but is in my knowledge at a vast discount to the actual real world cost of buying this land. This is the value hiding. The difference between the actual cost and price paid to the land owner to acquire this land is the cash soak.

Let me illustrate:

Lets say I have to launder…sorry…’invest’…Rs1,00,00,000 (1 crore). In stock I can buy 1 crore of stock and it will show up in records as 1 crore. If I want to buy gold, beyond a point, I can buy 1 crore worth of gold for 1 crore worth of currency. But land…if the actual market rate is 1 crore, BUT value in government records is say only Rs10 lakhs, then for  corrupt person with a lot of cash in earned in bribes, this is a godsend. He can buy a crore of property by only disclosing Rs 10 lakhs or 10% of his wealth. The rest of the money 90% of it can be paid in cash, allowing him to dispose off his cash and his tax troubles/crimes to someone else! The new owner gets the land transferred to his name and converts land into N.A. (Non Agricultural) to prevent any legislated acquisition of the property by the government.

While I concede that this may have always been happening, the conspiracy thesis is that the flow of money being repatriated has caused a parabolic shift in the amount of money going into this space causing land prices to SKYROCKET!

It is the implications of this that worry me, and are multi-pronged:

Impact analysis: a blind spot: As I feared and as a senior journo confirmed to me, is that there is no central agency that monitors how much land is changing hands and how much is being converted to N.A. In fact a validation of the above mentioned theory would be if one were to see a jump in land conversion to N.A. (ex government) since 2002 or 2003. How can the government foresee or analyse the impact of something it doesn’t know?!

Food scarcity: In the absence of any data with me, I quote a link: http://infochangeindia.org/agenda/battles-over-land/the-nuts-and-bolts-of-appropriating-agricultural-land.html with the caveat that I dont guarantee its accuracy or claim to know the intent of the author. The link claims: “Between 2002 and 2007, about 90,000 hectares of agricultural land across 25 mandals in and around Hyderabad have been diverted for real estate speculation and mega-projects. Another 63,000 hectares across 20 mandals of Ranga Reddy district have been lost over the past 10 years. These figures have been reported in a paper published in the August 4-10, 2007, issue of the Economic and Political Weekly by V R Reddy and B Suresh Reddy who estimated that a mind-boggling 5 lakh hectares of agricultural land have been lost in Andhra Pradesh in recent years. The authors feel this is a conservative estimate”.

My biggest question is not why this land was converted, but whether the government knows about this, does it have an idea how much land can be safely converted without impacting food security. Does conversion of 1 lakh hectare of land in say Year 1, impact the government’s view on whether similar permission will be given in year 2? Has the government prepared any study regarding this?

Poverty and cultural impact: While a few farmers, mostly those who had some sizeable holdings and some relationship advantage in a geographical area have been able to milk this cash hoarding by turning into land brokers and entrepreneurs, this dastardly business has in my unstudied opinion, a vast populace of farmers untouched. What does a farmer whose ancestors have tilled a small plot of land for generations do once that land is taken away? Ok, if there is a factory built on that spot, he may take some employment there, but is he skilled to do it? If the land is going to be used to build residences, then maybe he does masonry work during construction, but what about after? Will he not fall prey to unemployment and poverty? More so if he has spent the money he received unproductively, then he is left with nothing. What does he turn to? Does he not become an easy target for ‘coercive’ religious conversion?

Housing impact: With a relentless black money inflow artificially inflating land prices, the price of land, the most basic raw material for housing has shot up. With commodity prices (cement, steel, energy etc) also on an uptick, cost for housing has gone up. With the result that builders (that are used to supernormal profit margins) are unwilling to look at mass housing or affordable housing seriously as a business model. A simple journey from Mumbai to Pune will tell you about how many projects are “exclusive”, “opulent”, “luxurious”, “second homes”, “bungalows” etc etc. Not too many for housing in a country where 100s of millions are middle class to poor! That just doesn’t make sense. With property prices at ridiculous rates (as I mentioned in opening comments) the number of investors they attract (versus users) appears to have shot up. Does everyone think that property prices will keep going up? Japan, anyone?

What about the vast numbers that will not be able to afford to move out of their parents home and start a life, family because the rates are so high. Surely, land in India can be in short supply, in fact: “A little arithmetic shows this is not the case. If you place 1.2 billion people in four-person homes of 1000 square feet each, and two workers of the family into office/factory space of 400 square feet, this requires roughly 1% of India’s land area assuming an FSI(floor space index) of 1. There is absolutely no shortage of land to house the great Indian population.” http://www.firstpost.com/investing/japan-to-india-busting-the-biggest-myth-of-investing-in-real-estate-921239.html

In a country where there is a ‘housing shortage’ of 20-30 million units (Source: http://pib.nic.in/newsite/erelease.aspx?relid=56880) what is the reason that I read this statement in a report: “The inventory level has almost doubled in the last three years. In the National Capital Region, the inventory level reached 31 months at the end of March 2013 against 15 months at the end of March 2010, while in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region the inventory level has jumped from 17 months to 40 months. In Hyderabad, it reached 49 months in March 2013 as compared to 23 months in March 2010, according to data by real estate research firm Liases Foras. Inventory denotes the number of months required to clear the stock at the existing absorption rate. An efficient market maintains an inventory of eight to ten months,” a news report in the Business Standard points out.”?!

Housing inventory is 3 to 5 TIMES higher than the level it should be at should at in an efficient market. Real estate firms might be loathe to cut prices due to the high cost of land paid and/or some extra ‘commitments’ that no one likes to talk about! Is this a validation of the theory outlined above?

So how does this situation resolve itself? One, way is economics, as alternative shadow banking jurisdictions develop, the new ‘flow’ of money into real estate will slow down, after easier to transfer black money from one foreign location to another, than risk bringing it to India. The money that is already invested in land in India, will need to be moved out, but with land being a sticky asset, this will be a slow process. Also, this will likely put a lot of pressure on land prices in India. So if I was a land investor, I would probably hold on to the pulling the BUY trigger yet.

Second way is through, a price crash. Eventually unrealistic asset prices crash,it might happen expeditiously or via death by a thousand cuts route, as was the case in Japan. My guess is this will be triggered by builders trying to offload property that they can no longer hold. So if it does take this route it will begin in the apartment pricing stage. Already builders are feeling the heat and are offering some discounts etc. In fact if you look at real, inflation adjusted pricing it can be argued that price action is already happening.

The third way, is through government action. If new, honest government comes into power and is serious about tackling the menace of black money, it should set up a land transaction monitoring organisation that will track anyone trying to quickly sell out his/ her land to escape scrutiny. Secondly, such an organisation can examine all land transactions where land was subsequently converted to N.A. Track the seller and his income and use that route to get to the buyer.  In fact, if properly executed, this third way will simultaneously trigger way 1 and 2 described above.

 

Anyway, I just wanted to get back to blogging after a long hiatus and hence describing an idea that has been going on in my head for years. Notably, this is a conspiracy theory and possibly wrong. When I mention politicians or black money this only refers to those people who are allegedly corrupt and should be defamatory for the honest lot. As always, this is a work of fiction and no intention to hurt anyone.