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Tuesday 11 August 2015

Will the US Fed raise rates in the September policy meet?

After my success in predicting what the Indian RBI will do, I decided to try to predict the US Fed's stance in its policy meet in September. As usual, this post is for my academic interest only, do not take it for a market opinion and no not trade based on astrology.

There is a strong belief in the market that the USA will increase rates in September as a sign of normalisation of the economy. In fact in the today's Business Standard edition the Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart is quoted as being "very disposed" to a rate increase in the Fed's September policy meeting.

Fair enough, now lets see what the starts suggest. I cast a chart at 9:45:53 AM, 12th Aug 2015, Pune with the seed 200.

The relevant DBA for the September meet is JU-VE-RA

Assuming that the market is anticipating a rate rise, I posit that 3 11, 2 6 10 11, 3 6 10 11 to give me a positive answer for rate rise 6 8 12 or 3 6 8 or 3 6 12 or 3 6 8 12 for a negative answer, ie market anticipation being belied.

Jupiter sigs: 3 7 12, 2 3 7 12, 6 7 8 9
Venus sigs: 5 7 10, 2 3 7 12, 5 7 10
Rahu sigs: 6 7 8 9, 7 8, 5 7 10

Dasha lord directly denies rate hike, Venus is slightly positive but even it has a 7 12. Rahu is also negative.

So If i was a betting man, I would say that the Fed will disappoint the market and the rate hike will not be announced.



2 comments:

  1. http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0QI1K020150813?irpc=932

    Let's see :)

    ReplyDelete
  2. Prediction came correct as the Fed did not hike rates

    ReplyDelete