India Presidential Drama

The Indian Presidential drama has played out over the last few days and that is continuing to be played out is seeing Indian politics at its worst (or best, depending on how you look at it). As Ravi Shastri would have put it: In the end, politics was the real winner. The game of shadow boxing, thinking four steps ahead and hint dropping is at its peak, it would seem.

This is how I read the situation. At the outset I was 100% confident that Sonia would not nominate Pranab as the Presidential candidate of her own free will (with one exception: She expected a mid-term election and did not want to antagonise Pranab). And I stick by this conviction, had the game not been changed (which I will discuss presently).  

Why not Pranab?

The reason for my conviction is rooted in the assumption that Sonia would not like to have anyone with a relatively independent mind in any post which could target her, her family or Congress leaders.

Pranab (unfortunately for her, perhaps) is intelligent, a past master in Indian-style politics, has somewhat of a spine and has a beef to pick with some senior Congress ministers and Sonia’s confidantes. Regular news readers will remember Pranab’s chagrin at being spied upon by P Chidambaram, the Home Minister, after bugs were discovered in Pranab’s office. Pranab will also remember how he was kept out negotiations with Team Anna (or was it Baba Ramdev) and coming to know the agreement with everyone else in the Parliament, a clear rebuff. He will also remember how he was made to retract his signed statement that placed the blame of the 2G scam squarely on Chidambaram’s shoulder. All this must be deeply insulting for a man who has given his career for the benefit for the Gandhi family. He must also know that none of the above instances could be possible without the orders of the Congress Supremo. 

Pranab was the smokescreen

Congress which had heaped a Pratibha Patil could not pull out another name like that given its scam-ridden tenure. It had to first get a carte-blanche from its UPA allies before it announced its Presidential candidate. So with the help of the media, Congress floated the name of Pranab as its candidate. It is noteworthy that at no time did any senior leader of the party, much less Soniaji herself, did formally announce Pranab’s name. As expected, its equally-corrupt allies were prompt in authorising Sonia Gandhi under the Pranab smokescreen. Later on when the name of Sonia’s butler was announced, the allies could defend their ‘helplessness’ having already authorised Sonia. Soon the media would ensure that this episode was forgotten and another hand maid(en) would rule Raisina Hill. 

Who did Sonia really want?

Basically she would have been happy with anyone who did not have the guts to stand up to her. That opens up the entire Congress Party to choice and so it was more of a bouquet than any rigid qualification system. I believe even PA Sangma (PAS) was (is) one of her candidates, given he is a non entity in the rest of the county and has no mass following except in one state. I will discuss PAS later.

But Sonia decided to make use of this opportunity to ‘kick’ Manmohan Singh (MMS) upstairs. There are two reasons for this: 

a) He has presided over arguably the most corrupt government ever, anytime in the world. Removing him will give people the illusion of action and frankly make people hate the Congress a little bit less. Makes it easier for the media to get the public to forget the various scams once the head is out and some cabinet reshuffling can be done.

b) Manmohan may turn out to be the Professor Snape of Indian politics. There is a growing belief among a section of political observers that he is actually helping bring down the corrupt coterie in the congress, including allegedly the family itself, by his activities. Consider this, almost all the leaks (2G Pranabs letter, VK Singhs letter, Antrix-Devas papers etc) have come out of the PMO and the media has hardly broken any scandal on its own. There is a feeling that perhaps he even helps Dr. Subramaniam Swamy’s crusade for justice leading to Dr.Swamy never targeting Manmohan directly.

Pranab's dream comes in the way

However, thanks to the persistent rumours about Pranab’s candidature, that Sonia did not deny (she couldn’t, after all that WAS the plan!), and some well-schemed prodding by the opposition, Pranab himself began coveting President-ship. After all, he was PM material now relegated to reporting to his junior (Manmohan Singh). Being persistently denied what was rightfully his, Pranab now finally had something to crown the end of his political innings. He is anyway not going to contest elections again and would rather ride into the sunset donning the President’s hat than be remembered as ‘a cabinet minister’ in the most corrupt government and as the Finance Minister saw the near-demise of the Indian economy. Pranab began to believe that he was (or atleast deserved to be) the Congress’ Presidential candidate. Now, THIS Sonia did NOT factor.

The pawns

When Sonia realised that she would have to drop Pranab and replace him with Manmohan, she knew she had to shoot from someone else’s shoulders. After all Congress cant afford antagonising Pranab, he knows too much. So Sonia chose two people to manipulate toward this end.

The first was Mamta Banerjee (MB), the explosive, moody chief minister of W.Bengal. Mamta has no love lost for Pranab. MB is ex-Congress stock who fought for the Party for years in West Bengal, the bastion of communists in India. In fact it is rumoured that she left the Congress in the mid-90s to form the TMC only because of Pranab’s deep friendship with the communists that was resulting in her efforts against them coming to naught. Additionally, she has been long demanding a financial package for W.Bengal which Pranab has been consistently stalling. So using Mamta against Pranab would not raise any suspicions.

The second was Mulayam Singh Yadav (MSY), the calculating and allegedly extremely corrupt chief minister of Uttar Pradesh (UP). Rumour has it that he has several damning cases pending with the CBI which are used as a ‘stick’ by the Congress everytime they want him to fall in line. It is well known that after several flip flops, Mulayam always sides with the Congress when it matters (nuclear deal e.g.) and everyone can guess the reason why.

So it was clear to Sonia that Mamta’s character and Mulayam’s alleged lack of it make them the best pawns to use for this operation. 

This was the master plan *

Sonia talked to Mulayam Singh Yadav (MSY), the head of the Samajwadi Party (SP) to put into motion her master plan that would achieve multiple objectives. She asked him to talk to Mamata Banerjee (MB), head of Trinamool Congress Party (TMC) of West Bengal, to plan a ‘rebellion’ against the UPA. Given her long misgivings about the Congress, Pranab and perhaps even the Gandhis, Mamta would readily agree. So Mulayam and Mamta got together and hatched a plan. 

The plan within the plan – Phase I

Sonia invited Mamata for a meeting in 10 Jan Path and possibly said something like this. “I will guarantee you whatever package you want, if you go out and say that you insisted on Manmohan Singh’s name as President”. This way, Sonia could have feigned helplessness in front of Pranab and said something like “look these are difficult times, we are facing multiple pressures, why should we risk a break in the UPA now? Manmohan Singh is anyway the symbol of massive corruption, this gives him a face-saving exit and I will promote you to the post of Deputy PM. You know Mamata is extracting her long standing vendetta against you, and I am really helpless against his. I have nothing to do with this but you should forget your Presidential dreams and take one of the chin for the Congress Party”. 

The plan within the plan – Phase II

Mamta met journalists immediately outside 10JP and said Sonia recommended two names, Pranab and Hamid Ansari (even causal observers know that Hamid is nowhere close to Pranab in stature). This must have caused massive consternation to Pranab who till now was perhaps given to believe that he was Congress’ ONLY candidate. He immediately knew that was a lie and that Sonia was throwing other names, much less qualified names to partners. To top this, Mamata went to a meeting with Mulayam Singh, whom she perceived to be a partner in this, and said that they jointly have three names: Abdul Kalam (her real intent), Manmohan Singh (as she had promised Sonia) and Somnath Chatterjee (a diversion).

The plan within the plan (goes slightly awry) – Phase III

The Congress made a big show about being muddled, not knowing what to do, not having expected this turn of events at all. Which in itself is surprising given that Mamta had told reporters that Sonia knows that I am going be announcing the two names (Pranab and Hamid) outside.

But, this was also where the plan went a little awry. While Sonia had expected Mamta to take Manmohan’s name and give an ultimatum to her, which was what Sonia wanted, Mamta took three names. If Sonia would have chosen Manmohan from those three, it would have looked like she has no faith in the PM, causing the opposition to call for a trust vote or try and pull the government down. It was a media circus that Sonia wanted to avoid. This caused her to change her plan a little bit, she was now forced to defend Manmohan Singh, basically ruling him out for President nomination. Which in a way was good, as Manmohan Singh is the best PM India can get under the UPA (and for the reasons stipulated earlier).

Had things gone to plan and Mamta and Mulayam insisted on just Manmohan, this would have been the end of it, with Pranab’s hope dashed for a believable excuse. 

The plan changes

Now the plan needed to be changed. While there was no choice now for the Congress but to prop Pranab up for President-ship. But after the events of the first day, Sonia could not just flip, she had to ensure that Pranab believed that he had coerced her to change. Otherwise, he would never trust the Congress. That is, in his mind unless he believed he knew WHY the Congress changed it decision, he would not believe they were serious about getting him elected.

Congress cleverly kept quiet for a day and waited for Pranab to come to 10JP and vent his anger. And vent, he did. Early next morning he got in touch with Sonia and used some of the many cards he has at his disposal to coerce her into defending his candidature. Maybe one of the cards was the illegal account holder list received from the LGT Bank, Lichtenstein which Pranab has so far managed to not disclose? It was after this orchestrated tongue lashing (Pranab was himself unaware of this), Sonia sent one of her men Dwivedi to defend Manmohan Singh as the PM, and eventually after a big show of discussion, announced Pranab as the candidate. 

Plan B

Now the plan is: Prop Pranab as the Congress’ official candidate, but ensure that the other guy (whom Sonia likes) wins.

As originally planned, Mulayam abruptly stopped supporting Mamta. This gets rid of the most difficult ally of the UPA, without the Congress officially throwing it out. This also brings Mulayam closer to the Congress and more wedded to its fate. In fact it was this betrayal of Mamta by Mulayam that suggested that the entire drama was coordinated. Why? – I will discuss later.

The replacement killers

Now there is no way that Sonia was going to support Kalam. One, he is as savvy and spine-ful as Pranab, if not more. Second, he is the one who stopped Sonia from becoming the PM in 2004 and if Dr. Subramanian Swamy is to be believed will even stop Rahul Gandhi from the same. In any case, the opposition wanted Kalam but were unable to convince him that he would win. As such Kalam excused himself from the contest and in came PA Sangma (PAS). 

PA Sangma

I have briefly touched upon PAS earlier in this narrative and indicated my feeling that he is actually a Sonia candidate. The reason for this is manifold. PAS is a Christian from the north-east of India, that is a key fan club of the current Gandhi family. Additionally, after quitting the Congress party on Sonia’s foreign origin issue, PAS has apologised to her for it and even is part of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) that is propping the UPA government up. Also, PAS’ very young daughter (in her 20s) was taken into the Union Cabinet of India by Sonia highlighting Sonia’s affections for PAS and his family. All this leads me to believe that PAS was always Sonia’s plan B with respect to candidature.

Recently, in-line with Sonia’s plan, NCP and Sangma made a big show about how NCP does not want it to contest against Pranab. After all, wouldn’t the plan be obvious if UPA fielded two candidates?! Sangma quit the NCP in a huff and the NCP accepted his resignation without any ado. But DESPITE THIS seeming fight between the two, Sangma’s daughter, Agatha, continues to be part of the Union Cabinet as a NCP nominee. While she may be moved out temporarily at some point under some obscure Party disciplinary issue, the game is now obvious for anyone to see: Daughter in Sonia’s cabinet (for no achievements that are known to the masses), while father revolts against Sonia? Is that even possible. This cements my belief that Sangma is one the candidates Sonia would like to see as President instead of Pranab.

This would also explain Sangma’s confidence in his serious fight based on the support of just two regional parties: Jayalalitha’s AIADMK and Naveen Patnaiks Biju Janata Dal (BJD), which collectively have just about 4-8%% of the vote.  

Formation of the third front quashed

NDA judiciously had kept its mouth shut on the entire thing. Especially, some BJP leaders known for shooting their mouths off were reined in. This would limit the Party’s humiliation should events unfold as unexpected by them. While NDA, especially the BJPs inclination towards Kalam was understood and appreciated by everyone, Kalam’s withdrawal threw a spanner in the works. NDA was clearly reluctant to support Sangma.

This was another (perhaps unexpected) benefit of fielding Sangma to the Congress. It squarely divided the polity into three parts, first, that would support Pranab, second, that would support Sangma and third, that WAS supporting Kalam but was now undecided and reluctant to support Sangma. The group supporting Sangma, would in future be recognised as the third front and would opportunity to various regional parties and currently unaffiliated small parties a chance to form a large political block. This would dilute the nationalist, Hindutva agenda and would result in votes being split three way giving the Congress a chance to form UPA III, a chance that at this moment is non-existent. This is the brilliance of Sonia Gandhis plan, multiple objectives with one scheme!

Thanks to the presence of Dr. Subramanian Swamy, NDAs non-existing political acumen was given a massive, massive boost. I am sure Dr.Swamy read the situation as it is and identified the formation of the third front. To prevent the splitting of the vote, Dr. Swamy cleverly convinced the BJP to support Sangma. It is possible that Narendra Modi also had a big part to play in this, but Dr. Swamy was clearly the main man of this operation. What this did is, it cut the idea of a grand ‘third front’ in the bud. Today AIADMK, BJD and BJP is the block that’s supporting Sangma, not some ‘third front’. In fact, this aligns these regional satraps (also good personal friends of Narendra Modi) closer with NDA. It is quite possible that even Mamta Banerjee who has clearly been made a political laughing stock out of by the Congress, will support Sangma and become closer aligned with the NDA.  

Why is Nitish Kumar of JD(U) angry?

It is well known that Nitish wants to become the PM of India. But as a member of a smaller faction in the NDA, he knows that he has no chance of getting the nomination. His outside chance was the clear, qualified and desired candidature of Narendra Modi would be quashed by the NDA elders due to his ‘Hindu’ image in the media house’s minds. He kept threatening BJP with separation from NDA regularly by asking Modiji to not visit Gujarat, returning aid checks sent by Gujaratis (VERY petty), kept harping on the need for a ‘secular’ PM and what not as methods to occupy the mindspace of the people in BJP and the media and the ‘secular’ intelligentsia.

However, Modi’s recent demonstration of his clout within the BJP (also see my blog on why BJP has no alternative than to anoint Narendra Modi as PM candidate), convinced Nitish that he stood no outside chance at all in the NDA. So what does he do? If he quits and goes to UPA, then he wont even have the chance at PM-ship that he has now, given that his surname isn’t Gandhi and wont work as his steward. So his only alternative was the creation of the third front that could use his face as a PM candidate. By scuttling the idea of this front itself, NDA has ensured Nitish is reined in. No wonder he is angry and asking his men to keep firing off against BJP and Modiji on an almost daily basis.

The best outcome for BJP in his scenario is that Nitish actually does split even under the current scenario. If the vote swing in its favour is any indicator during the last elections, BJP will likely do much better than JD(U) at the hustings. Moreover, with Nitish out, I have no doubt UPA will move in to take him up. Even on his reduced strength (ie without BJP/RSS support) Nitish will be a much for formidable partner in Bihar than UPA’s current Laloo Yadav of the RJD. Laloo has just 3-4 seats from Bihar and is a virtual non-entity except for his rabble rousing ability whenever UPA needs it. The prospect of Nitish leaving NDA must be giving Modi, Bihar BJP and even Congress sound sleep at night, even as it keeps Laloo wide awake, clenching his bedsheet or chatai in deep fear.

So what happens from here?

Given that NDA did not have numbers and with some of its members (JD-U and Shiv Sena) pledging support to Pranab, I think it has done a decent job of the situation, thanks to Dr. Swamy and Modiji.

Sonia who would have discounted Pranab at the first stage itself and rid herself of an headache of a PM Manmohan Singh, is not forced to hang on to him as PM and is forced to publically back Pranab as President. Where she has won is that she managed to get Sangma propped up as a rival candidate. She will ensure that he gets enough dissident cross voting from her party and that of her allies (esp SP and NCP) so that he wins. This helps in cutting Pranab to size and at same time having someone like Sangma as President, who is a bit more ‘reasonable’ that Pranab would have been. The shock of Pranab losing may even result in a trust vote and depending on how badly Chidambaram fares in the 2G case coming up sometime in July, this government could well be on its way out unexpectedly soon.

The failure of formation of third front will see NDA getting consolidated and Nitish Kumar going the Laloo way. If he is able to work at it, then he may still remain relevant in Bihar, but that state is he graveyard of many politicians and does not usually give anyone second chances. The nominal party head Sharad Yadav will recognise the situation and has already asked Nitish’s cohorts to stop making noises against the BJP. He realises that Nitish may have a short time to political expiry and he had better latch on to the BJP bandwagon to ensure his own survival. He has no independent constituency of his own and depends on Nitish to get him votes. He also realises that if Nitish joined the third front or the UPA, his own utility will be at a naught leaving him stranded. So when push comes to shove he will strive to keep JD-U within the NDA fold.

In fact, its was on twitter the other day (with a pinch of salt please), that when BJP workers carried Modi’s posters in Bihar just a day before and dared JD-U to pull out of alliance with BJP, Nitish was apparently sweating in his AC cabin seeing Modi’s stature.

So in summary:

Sangma will be next President in a ‘surprise’ upset.

Pranab may eat humble pie and choose to vanish without a trace or come out all guns blazing against Sonia as he is no doubt going to figure out whats happened. In which case he would be a serious, serious, serious threat to the Congress. But his reaction depends on how compromised he personally is.

Nitish will accept his fate as being limited to Bihar, if that. BJP will re-emerge as power if he leaves, while RJD will vanish without trace. If Nitish stays with BJP, he will be significantly humbler than before.

Dr.Swamy and Narendra Modi will emerge as power blocks in BJP that appears to be starved for strategic thinking.

NDA will add three parties to its fold or atleast garner ‘outside’support from one or more of them.

Mid term elections before end of this year.

* The most important question: Why did I expect this exercise to be Congress’ plan at all?

To the casual onlooker, the Congress looked to be meandering aimlessly at first and reacting to the situation. Which is very uncharacteristic of its political acumen. But the biggest give-away for me was Mulayam’s flip-flop.

Consider this, why did Mulayam revolt against Congress in partnership with Mamata in the first place? If we believe that he back tracked from the revolt due to the CBI cases against him, then did he not know about those cases 48 hours earlier when he was doing joint press conferences with Mamata? Of course he did!

If we argue, that yes, he did know of the cases but thought that UPA as a government would fall very quickly and that it would not give CBI enough time to act against him. So then I would argue, if that was the case, then it doesn’t explain him backtracking, ie if he believed government is going to fall then why obey its CBI-laced diktats at all?!

The third reason could be that Mulayam always intended to betray Mamata and only did this drama to alienate her from the UPA, just so that he becomes more valuable to the UPA. But surely Mulayam knows how big a dent in his credibility he has taken leaving Mamata at the altar, figuratively speaking, by behaving the shocking way her has flip flopping every few hours. Who will trust him now?! His alleged lack of ethics have been exposed for all now. And all this for what? To ingratiate himself to a Congress that is most likely to be routed next elections? He doesn’t need them in his bastion (Uttar Pradesh), so why risk his political credibility on what is widely viewed as a sinking ship?! Just doesn’t make sense. For whatever you may say about Mulayam, you cannot doubt his ability to look after his self interests!

In fact, I could not come up with any single credible, rational, logical explanation on why Mulayam revolted in the first place at all! It is from this that the germ of an idea formed in my mind that his revolt against the Congress candidate was engineered in the first place. Why would Mulayam himself engineer the death of his credibility in Delhi? It followed that he was forced to do this. Who can force him to do this? Who else? The people who wield control over the CBI which has the power to investigate (or put on the back burner) cases against him.

Disclaimer:this is clearly a work of fiction and a made-up account of what might have happened behind the scenes. Some true events are included but by no means is this intended to be a true account. No intent to offend or malign anyone, just pure speculation from someone who weaved a story trying (unsuccessfully perhaps) to incorporate all events that have happend in a single cohesive narrative. This is for entertainment purposes, so take it with a pinch of salt.