The Third Front That No One Is Talking About

The country finds itself at crossroads today. We have an incredibly incompetent and allegedly the most corrupt government in power. But at the same time the opposition, especially the BJP, is such that it hardly inspires confidence. My disdain for the current leadership and direction of the BJP is well known thanks to my earlier blogs and I will not waste time on the same. But I will again highlight how Nitin Gadkari seems to be almost childishly blocking Narendra Modi from progressing politically. If there is genuinely an issue with Modiji that makes him a bad choice for PM-ship, then the BJP is doing a really bad job of communicating it to him and its supporters. For now, it is IMHO a clear case of pettiness on the part of BJP’s current leadership coterie. Other points on how BJP seems to be in cahoots with the Congress has already been covered in my last blog post.

Anyway, so for a die-hard nationalist like me, BJP is no longer the patriotic choice versus the Congress at worst, or atleast the margin between the two has been substantially reduced. This brings one to the much publicised, but never realised third-front. I think there is a possibility of a third front formation, but its not like the one that’s traditionally understood, ie a Left led jirga. I think a very sturdy third front can be formed in such a way that will also factor in the concerns I had raised in earlier blog on how regionalism is taking hold in India. The third front will be led by Narendra Modi.

My hypothetical playbook reads thus: Narendra Modi wins a thumping majority in the upcoming Gujarat state elections underlining his development led agenda. Around the same time the courts exonerate Modi from all the false charges being made by the foreign funded NGO milieu. If at that point Nitin and gang continues obstruct Narendra bhai, he will split away from the BJP and bring a lot of like minded people into his fold. His Sadbhavana fasts were nothing more than tests to check out his own political alliances. Here are the people I think who will support Modi (note I don’t think Modiji will opt for the CONgress or any lame third front given his strong RSS-fuelled patriotic credentials):

1)      Vasundhara Raje in Rajasthan: She is a firebrand leader and well wedded to a nationalist agenda. She has also been facing problems with Nitin Gadkari who seems to be trying to imbibe Congress culture into the BJP. Rajasthan sends 25 seats to the Lok Sabha and given the current Congress misrule there, she is likely to sweep the state on her own (which she will have to if she splits from the BJP thanks to mismanagement).

2)      BS Yeddyurappa in Karnataka: Currently caught up in corruption cases and a whipping boy for both the BJP and the CONgress. I am not by any means defending any corruption he has done, only pointing out that he has issues with Nitin Gadkari and a mass following. Karnataka sends 28 seats to the Lok Sabha. BSY is also an RSS man and will not want to join Congress just for the sake of power esp given that it’s a sinking ship.

3)      Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab: SAD is one of the few parties that had sent its representatives to Modi’s Sadbhavana yatra. SAD is a dharmic culture based party and will clearly support Modi in an independent bid for PM’s post. Punjab sends 13 seats to the Lok Sabha. Judging from its assembly tally, also likely to sweep polls.

4)      Jayalalitha in TN: Jaya is another leader who had sent her people to Modi’s Sadbhavana rally thus indicating her support. In the view of an long time follower of Indian politics and cinema (with whom I checked), it was Jaya who moved MGR from his path of atheistic/anti-hindu beliefs and thus wont be opposed to the idea of Modi as PM. TN sends 39 seats to the Lok Sabha and is likely to sweep state polls, especially if they are held quickly.

5)      Mayawati in UP: Yes, this is a surprising one but I think Mayawati is too politically astute to oppose Modi. Ideologically she is flexible. Everyone knows how she shifted her slogan from “Tilak tarazoo aur talwar, inko maro joote chaar” to “Haathi nahin Ganesh hain, Brahma, Vishnu, Mahesh hain”. She also has issues with the Congress government and isn’t a visible minority appeaser (dalits being her vote bank) making her a strong candidate to support Modi. Plus I think she may enjoy a good personal equation with Modiji himself. This way she can also been seen to be supporting a third front rather than the Congress or the BJP which helps protect her own constituency (after all Modi isn’t a Brahmin right? He is just highly qualified and capable to run this country). Given the mismanagement by Akhilesh Yadav of SP, in just a few months, Mayawati is likely to sweep elections when they are held. UP sends a massive 80 seats to the Lok Sabha.

6)      Biju Janata Dal in Orissa: The personal equation between Naveen Patnaik, Jayalalitha and Modiji is well known. They have taken stands together on various issues, most notable being the NCTC recently. Naveen has a protected vote in Orissa and will see that he will likely gain more importance in a third front led by Modi rather than being an also ran with Congress and BJP. Orissa sends 21 seats to the Lok Sabha.

7)      Shiv Sena and MNS in Maharashtra: SS and MNS are currently warring factions of the same family but perhaps Modi is best placed to bring them together for a higher, national cause. Bal Thackeray clearly has affinity for Hindutva as even originally he could have fashioned SS as a Maratha party and been just as popular without bringing Hindutva into the equation. But he didn’t, he did bring religion into it underlining his affinity and respect for his religion. MNS chief Raj Thackeray is IMHO the most capable, young leader at the state level today. His respect for Modiji is well known and had recently travelled to Gujarat to take inspiration from Modiji and mentions his visit in almost all his speeches. SS and MNS if they behave responsibly and divide seats between themselves have the potential to sweep Maharashtra elections. Maharashtra sends 48 seats to the Lok Sabha.

8)      Uma Bharti in MP and Parrikar in Goa: Uma Bharti is a fire brand leader who is a mass mobiliser. She may be disappointed by the Congress-lite nature of BJP today and will probably support Modiji. She specialises in Madhya Pradesh that sends 29 seats to the Lok Sabha. Manohar Parrikar is a great young leader for BJP and leads Goa (2 seats in Lok Sabha). He is also an RSS guy and will support Modi if push comes to shove.

The total of these seats plus 26 seats in Gujarat (that Modi will sweep) comes to about 311. A massive number. Even excluding MP and Karnataka that don’t have a strong leader or are burdened with corruption allegations, the number of seats is high at 254. Thus a Narendra Modi-led third front will be a formidable force even if it wins half of these seats. If it does win 160-180 seats, then who will Mamta-didi support? Who will the BJP (whats left of it) support? Who will small parties like NCP support? Where will BJP leaders in Bihar, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand and Uttarakhand swing? In my view, if Modiji is able to project a strong value and culture based leadership his third front can win over 300 seats.

In addition to just seats, Narendra Modi has the backing of a stalwart like Dr.Subramanian Swamy (the only other suitable PM candidate in the NDA, IMHO). While Dr. Swamy does not have a party mechanism in place now, his service to the country in the 2G case is well known and he may well win 15-20 seats from various parts of the country should be judiciously select seats and candidates, which I believe he will.

So based on my analysis, Modiji can divorce from the BJP and still manage to emerge as the PM candidate on his own. He is not a burden on the BJP, the current BJP is a burden on him!

But the objective of my analysis is not to encourage Modiji to break-up from the BJP. Personally I hope he stays with BJP and becomes their PM candidate and also rids BJP of false/compromised that it has and restore it to its original status of a “party with a difference”. The objective and to an extent conclusion of my blog is that BJP, even such state as it is in today, will have no other alternative than anointing Modiji as its PM candidate. It should know if it does otherwise, Modiji can just separate and become a PM on his own, its possible. After all in politics, I have given up expecting good sense and morality (even from the BJP), only blackmail works and Modiji has enough ammunition.