The recent U.P. poll results have come somewhat as a jolt to the BJP. UP sends 85 seats to the 543 member Lok Sabha and is thus the key swing state. Here, people have favoured local politicians irrespective of how corrupt they are. The face saving explanation from the BJP (and indeed the CONgress) has been that people voted for the best alternative replacement to Mayawati and we did not instil confidence that we would win.
The scary explanation is that people are turning parochial and voting their own, almost back to the dark ages of caste-ism. A less scary explanation is accepting the one by the BJP and CONgress. Even assuming the second explanation to be correct, BJP facing an uphill task in 2014 (or is it 2012?) elections.
Politicians are a rare breed of individuals who are driven solely by greed for money and power, some might say. If this is true, then ‘ideology’ is nothing more the thin veil than hides the ugly nakedness underneath. If the BJP is unable to assert its electoral supremacy, there is no reason why parties such as the Janata Dal (United) of Nitish Kumar and Sharad Yadav will stick with it. Similarly, the Akali Dal may decide to break away. These local outfits have never stopped dreaming of a grand third front which will represent local interests and IMHO be little more than a jirga of the sort we see in the wild north west regions of Pakistan and in Afghanistan. Short of another CONgress government, there can be nothing worse for India. Nitish appears to fancy himself as the Prime Minister, so does Jayalalitha, so does Biju Patnaik to name a few that immediately come to mind. There can be no stability where a clear leader does not exist.
The BJP is clearly contributing to the issue by its own ego clashes and leadership issues. The tallest leader in the party is clearly Narendra Modi, but Nitin Gadkari and his band of merry men (and women?) are doing their utmost to insult Modi. Narendra bhai was also deliberately kept away from campaigning in all election states (and also Bihar when hustings were underway there). I have little doubt that he alone could have converted 50 seats for the BJP, but Nitin in all is wide wisdom has chosen to put ego in front of the country. Which isn’t surprising, given my base assumption of politicians being a rare breed indeed.
So BJP is not going to be a serious contender in Bihar, where Nitish will take over as many seats as he can from their coalition and may even contest separately when the time comes. Punjab with the reduced tally of the national party faces the same issue. So where does the BJP compete on its on terms and with some sort of a toe-hold in the state? I have identified the following: Goa (2), Gujarat (26), Haryana (10), Himachal (4), Karnataka (28), Madhya Pradesh (40), Maharashtra (48), Rajasthan (25), Uttar Pradesh (85) and Delhi (7). Therefore, if the BJP still harbours dream of forming a majority government, it has to win 272 seats of the 275, maybe 285 seats that it has atleast some fighting chance in. I am including UP, assuming what Gadkari says is correct ie people vote for a viable alternative, in state elections that alternative was Samajwadi Party so at the national level it will be the BJP. Bihar will be dominated by Nitish, Southern states by local parties, north-eastern states by local parties and Congress. Punjab by the Badals. W. Bengal by Mamta-didi, who baulks at even sharing the dias with BJP at neutral events. Already people in SAD are hinting at trying to make a third front. Nitish appears as if he is almost out of the door (Sharad Yadav virtually distanced himself from the NDA already). We all know Mamta is a loose canon who feels strait-jacketed in the Congress-led UPA.
The likelihood of BJP making it to even 200 seats after competing in 275-odd is slim at best. BJP has what…116 seats in the Lok Sabha now? If things continue in this vein, it will be reduced to below 100 for sure in the next elections. Even if the BJP still manages to become the biggest party in the NDA (assuming the NDA still does exist) its margin with no.2 will be much slimmer and its room to get its policy and ideology through non-existent.
It is perhaps time for BJP to take a leaf out of Rahul Gandhi’s book and instead of concentrating on ridiculing him, start to build a credible base in even ‘friendly’ states where it seems to have become lazy and left winning up to the coalition partner (Punjab being the case in point). To be fair, BJP had decided to go it alone in UP and that was an eye opener for it, lets hope it learns fast and builds a base again before its partners that are firmly behind it now, stab it in the back.
The scary explanation is that people are turning parochial and voting their own, almost back to the dark ages of caste-ism. A less scary explanation is accepting the one by the BJP and CONgress. Even assuming the second explanation to be correct, BJP facing an uphill task in 2014 (or is it 2012?) elections.
Politicians are a rare breed of individuals who are driven solely by greed for money and power, some might say. If this is true, then ‘ideology’ is nothing more the thin veil than hides the ugly nakedness underneath. If the BJP is unable to assert its electoral supremacy, there is no reason why parties such as the Janata Dal (United) of Nitish Kumar and Sharad Yadav will stick with it. Similarly, the Akali Dal may decide to break away. These local outfits have never stopped dreaming of a grand third front which will represent local interests and IMHO be little more than a jirga of the sort we see in the wild north west regions of Pakistan and in Afghanistan. Short of another CONgress government, there can be nothing worse for India. Nitish appears to fancy himself as the Prime Minister, so does Jayalalitha, so does Biju Patnaik to name a few that immediately come to mind. There can be no stability where a clear leader does not exist.
The BJP is clearly contributing to the issue by its own ego clashes and leadership issues. The tallest leader in the party is clearly Narendra Modi, but Nitin Gadkari and his band of merry men (and women?) are doing their utmost to insult Modi. Narendra bhai was also deliberately kept away from campaigning in all election states (and also Bihar when hustings were underway there). I have little doubt that he alone could have converted 50 seats for the BJP, but Nitin in all is wide wisdom has chosen to put ego in front of the country. Which isn’t surprising, given my base assumption of politicians being a rare breed indeed.
So BJP is not going to be a serious contender in Bihar, where Nitish will take over as many seats as he can from their coalition and may even contest separately when the time comes. Punjab with the reduced tally of the national party faces the same issue. So where does the BJP compete on its on terms and with some sort of a toe-hold in the state? I have identified the following: Goa (2), Gujarat (26), Haryana (10), Himachal (4), Karnataka (28), Madhya Pradesh (40), Maharashtra (48), Rajasthan (25), Uttar Pradesh (85) and Delhi (7). Therefore, if the BJP still harbours dream of forming a majority government, it has to win 272 seats of the 275, maybe 285 seats that it has atleast some fighting chance in. I am including UP, assuming what Gadkari says is correct ie people vote for a viable alternative, in state elections that alternative was Samajwadi Party so at the national level it will be the BJP. Bihar will be dominated by Nitish, Southern states by local parties, north-eastern states by local parties and Congress. Punjab by the Badals. W. Bengal by Mamta-didi, who baulks at even sharing the dias with BJP at neutral events. Already people in SAD are hinting at trying to make a third front. Nitish appears as if he is almost out of the door (Sharad Yadav virtually distanced himself from the NDA already). We all know Mamta is a loose canon who feels strait-jacketed in the Congress-led UPA.
The likelihood of BJP making it to even 200 seats after competing in 275-odd is slim at best. BJP has what…116 seats in the Lok Sabha now? If things continue in this vein, it will be reduced to below 100 for sure in the next elections. Even if the BJP still manages to become the biggest party in the NDA (assuming the NDA still does exist) its margin with no.2 will be much slimmer and its room to get its policy and ideology through non-existent.
It is perhaps time for BJP to take a leaf out of Rahul Gandhi’s book and instead of concentrating on ridiculing him, start to build a credible base in even ‘friendly’ states where it seems to have become lazy and left winning up to the coalition partner (Punjab being the case in point). To be fair, BJP had decided to go it alone in UP and that was an eye opener for it, lets hope it learns fast and builds a base again before its partners that are firmly behind it now, stab it in the back.
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