Way back in July I had put forth an astrological prognosis for BJP's Bihar election prospects. To my much surprise (disappointment, rather) I got a BJP seat win of between 50 and 60 seats. They have more seats than that currently! I did not believe those results and only documented them on this blog as a faithful student of astrology.
Last weak the election dates were announced followed by BJP and its allies seat sharing agreements followed by list of candidates fielded by BJP.
The seat sharing agreement gives BJP 160 seats. While 50-60 on 160 is much more understandable than 50-60 on 243, it is still very surprising giving the Modi effect throughout India. Anyway, this does prove my first prediction correct, from my original blog on the subject that BJP won't get a majority on its own. I mean, getting 122 seats from 160 contested, would require a win ratio of 76%. BJP doesn't have that in Gujrat, arguably its strongest state.
So I decided to do a seat by seat analysis to figure out which seats from the 160 BJP would win to re-check the 50-60 seat prediction. It was an hours and hours long exercise spread over three days, but finally managed to finish it now. Note, from the first three lists, BJP has issued 153 names. So this analysis is for 153 and not 160 seats.
I will not put up my seat by seat analysis now, but I will summarise it as follows:
48 seats are sure-shot BJP seats.
12 seats the charts were extremely unclear.
Even assuming that all the 12 'unclear' seats go to BJP, the party will be at 60, which is in the original 50-60 seat range predicted by me. Lets assume that the unknown 7 seats are declared by BJP and they also all go to BJP, that takes seat tally to 67 seats. So at best after a seat by seat analysis I would tweak my prediction to BJP winning 50-70 seats, instead of the original 50-60 seats.
It worth noting that I used ruling planets to figure out how many exact seats based on the original range of 50-60. The answer was 57.
So my general prediction would be 50-70 seats; and gun to the head specific prediction will be 57 seats for the BJP out of its allocated 160. Hope the BJP leadership manages expectations appropriately.
Notably, this is only a seat prediction and NOT a prediction on whether BJP would form a government in Bihar. Its quite possible that its NDA allies do really well (they have been allocated 83 seats and NDA might still be able to form the govt. Say BJP gets at the top end of the predicted range 70, and allies get 50-55 seats, entirely possible that NDA government is still formed in Bihar. Just clarifying the scope of my prediction is limited to seat count of BJP and not a comment on the future of NDA itself in Bihar.
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