Why the BJP faces an uphill battle next general elections...

The recent U.P. poll results have come somewhat as a jolt to the BJP. UP sends 85 seats to the 543 member Lok Sabha and is thus the key swing state. Here, people have favoured local politicians irrespective of how corrupt they are. The face saving explanation from the BJP (and indeed the CONgress) has been that people voted for the best alternative replacement to Mayawati and we did not instil confidence that we would win.

The scary explanation is that people are turning parochial and voting their own, almost back to the dark ages of caste-ism. A less scary explanation is accepting the one by the BJP and CONgress. Even assuming the second explanation to be correct, BJP facing an uphill task in 2014 (or is it 2012?) elections.

Politicians are a rare breed of individuals who are driven solely by greed for money and power, some might say. If this is true, then ‘ideology’ is nothing more the thin veil than hides the ugly nakedness underneath. If the BJP is unable to assert its electoral supremacy, there is no reason why parties such as the Janata Dal (United) of Nitish Kumar and Sharad Yadav will stick with it. Similarly, the Akali Dal may decide to break away. These local outfits have never stopped dreaming of a grand third front which will represent local interests and IMHO be little more than a jirga of the sort we see in the wild north west regions of Pakistan and in Afghanistan. Short of another CONgress government, there can be nothing worse for India. Nitish appears to fancy himself as the Prime Minister, so does Jayalalitha, so does Biju Patnaik to name a few that immediately come to mind. There can be no stability where a clear leader does not exist.

The BJP is clearly contributing to the issue by its own ego clashes and leadership issues. The tallest leader in the party is clearly Narendra Modi, but Nitin Gadkari and his band of merry men (and women?) are doing their utmost to insult Modi. Narendra bhai was also deliberately kept away from campaigning in all election states (and also Bihar when hustings were underway there). I have little doubt that he alone could have converted 50 seats for the BJP, but Nitin in all is wide wisdom has chosen to put ego in front of the country. Which isn’t surprising, given my base assumption of politicians being a rare breed indeed.

So BJP is not going to be a serious contender in Bihar, where Nitish will take over as many seats as he can from their coalition and may even contest separately when the time comes. Punjab with the reduced tally of the national party faces the same issue. So where does the BJP compete on its on terms and with some sort of a toe-hold in the state? I have identified the following: Goa (2), Gujarat (26), Haryana (10), Himachal (4), Karnataka (28), Madhya Pradesh (40), Maharashtra (48), Rajasthan (25), Uttar Pradesh (85) and Delhi (7). Therefore, if the BJP still harbours dream of forming a majority government, it has to win 272 seats of the 275, maybe 285 seats that it has atleast some fighting chance in. I am including UP, assuming what Gadkari says is correct ie people vote for a viable alternative, in state elections that alternative was Samajwadi Party so at the national level it will be the BJP. Bihar will be dominated by Nitish, Southern states by local parties, north-eastern states by local parties and Congress. Punjab by the Badals. W. Bengal by Mamta-didi, who baulks at even sharing the dias with BJP at neutral events. Already people in SAD are hinting at trying to make a third front. Nitish appears as if he is almost out of the door (Sharad Yadav virtually distanced himself from the NDA already). We all know Mamta is a loose canon who feels strait-jacketed in the Congress-led UPA.

The likelihood of BJP making it to even 200 seats after competing in 275-odd is slim at best. BJP has what…116 seats in the Lok Sabha now? If things continue in this vein, it will be reduced to below 100 for sure in the next elections. Even if the BJP still manages to become the biggest party in the NDA (assuming the NDA still does exist) its margin with no.2 will be much slimmer and its room to get its policy and ideology through non-existent.

It is perhaps time for BJP to take a leaf out of Rahul Gandhi’s book and instead of concentrating on ridiculing him, start to build a credible base in even ‘friendly’ states where it seems to have become lazy and left winning up to the coalition partner (Punjab being the case in point). To be fair, BJP had decided to go it alone in UP and that was an eye opener for it, lets hope it learns fast and builds a base again before its partners that are firmly behind it now, stab it in the back.

Election results have India on a razor's edge?

A vacuum always gets filled, is colloquially considered an immutable law of physics. And it’s so true in public life as well, as recently witnessed in the state elections in India. The bigger question is “who fills it?” The nearest available alternative, Indian public seems to say.

I believe that while a trend of preferring local leaders over national o...nes has been noticed, its import is lost on most analysts. National parties are missing the wood for the trees in trying to justify why they did so badly in states where they did not have a local leader. Atleast the Congress party has a reason, it’s incredibly corrupt and inept. The BJP does not even have that fig leaf and would do well to wake up and smell the proverbial coffee.

The people’s verdict to prefer a local leader over a national one, while desirable in many respects, also has a hint of caste-ism of a higher order. Politicians do what it takes to get them elected, we all know that. So how long is it before they being to wonder. “if my local-ness, is what gets me elected, why should I give a damn about the nation?”. This will reflect adversely in intra-country trade, in taxation, in levels of development and in incredibly irresponsible budgets leading to wholesale bankruptcy. Also, there will be no national leadership in Delhi, just a bunch of narrow-minded local satraps too busy looking after themselves than the nation.

If most states have a leadership like this, the national fabric of the country will undoubtedly be weakened. Already long decades of socialist, Congress rule have ensured that no single ‘national identity’ exists for India. India stands at a very delicate line between order and anarchy, democracy and revolution, Indian-ness and dismemberment. If the BJP is unable to remove its defeatist attitude, the lard surrounding it, the infighting and the greed for power, and its internal egos the country will slip into parochialism. What else can happen if the last nationalist party is unable to rise above itself when the occasion demands it?!

This is a sin we cannot afford especially when all constitutional institutions, the police, and armed forces have been systematically weakened over the last 7-8 years. The time to project a strong national leader is now and the BJP should grasp this moment. If the country slips into a loose arrangement of states, BJP alone will be responsible.
 

Whats reluctance got to do with it?

I find it surprising that all of Congress' popular leaders have been projected as reluctant to lead. I dont know about Indira Gandhi, but perhaps she was also projeected as an obedient daughter reluctantly taking up her fathers' duties?

I know Rajiv Gandhi was projected like this, son not wanting power, but thrust into the national arena and finally agreeing to lead this country out of sheer magn...animity for its poor people.

I know Sonia Gandhi was projected like this. Desh ki bahu, not wanting power, does everyone remember all the CONgress' MP's lining up first at her door and then making speeches one by one in the parliament wasting the tax payers money. I remember Govinda's speech: aapke netrutva mein matrutva hain. Not sure she understood, but then again stranger things have happened.

Rahul Gandhi's entry into politics was on expected lines. He was expected to take the gaddi just like Mukesh Ambani was after Dhirubhai. This took away his chance to be the 'reluctant'leader in the image of his brilliant family members. Perhaps this was the reasong for his failure (amongst many,many, many others)?

Now I see the CONgress spin machine and the 'free' and 'independent' media is projecting Priyanka Gandhi as the reluctant leader. Only there to help her brother handling the responsibilities of home and taking her of her husband and children like a good Indian bahu. I am waiting for the lines to come up outside her house begging her to lead the CONgress. If the 'reluctance' factor has anything to do with the Gandhi victories (and it may because God knows I cant see any other positives),Priyanks many just end up heading the next Indian govt.

 

There is a simple (hence possibly wrong) answer for this studied projection of the first family. It is to do with their understanding of one vital bit the Indian culture. We place the value of sacrifice above all else. The Rai Bahadur's and Sir's and other such title holders during the British Raj are vilified but people who gave their life to the freedom struggle with nothing to show for it are glorified. This not a recent phenomenon, Lord Ram who gave up the world to honour his father's wish is glorified. His brother Bharat who ruled, but reluctantly, and as a steward, is glorified. Karna and Eklavya who gave up divine protection and his right thumb respectively are glorified as is Harishchandra as is Buddha as is Mahavira. The Congress has this pulse of the public and the public has little time for someone who wants to barge into positions of power. It almost seems orchastrated how each member of the first family is cajoled into taking power (with no responsibility) and wielding it as they see fit. Its about time India sees the reality, that only TRUE sacrifice is to be honoured, not a well dramatised sequence for mass consumption.

 

 

 

Indian government retires the name ‘Grahul’

The Indian government today unanimously passed a resolution retiring the name ‘Grahul’. Tabling the Act to Repeal Select Etymology, 2027 (A.R.S.E.) in parliament is only a formality thanks to wide disarray in the opposition, though its passage will have widespread implications. The Bill will effectively outlaw the usage of the name ‘Grahul’ by anyone in the country. Contrary to earlier speculations, ARSE has been applied retrospectively resulting in deep inconvenience for a lot of people who were unfortunate to already been given this name by their parents.

Defending the government’s ARSE, Mr. Milkshake Wingvi dismissed suggestions that formulation of his Act was done to curry favour and garner brownie points from the high command. The eminent lawyer shot back, arguing “…it was a well established precedent with jersey number 10 worn by Argentinean striker Maradona being retired several years back. This has also happened in several other sports. After all a name is just like a number…but with numbers instead of letters, so there is no legal hurdle to do this. This is being done to commemorate the 55^th birthday of India’s beloved youth leader and to mark his achievements”. However, the press meet was abruptly called to a halt just after a foreign journalist, unaware of Indian culture, audaciously asked for an elaboration of Grahul’s achievements.

The 600 section Act contains detailed rules regarding the use and misuse of the names specified in its Appendix. While currently the Act applies to only one name, it is rumoured that the government may include a few more over the next few years. The original name owner will have to suffix the words “ARSE” after using the name just like the words “TM” are used under the Patents Act. The rights holder to a particular name will be designated as the “proprietary ARSE holder” in legal parlance and will be able to grant rights to any other deserving person to take on that name, such persons will be designated as “special ARSE receivers”.

Apart from ordinary citizens with the misfortune of being named Grahul, eminent star Farukh Khan has been reportedly asked to dub about re-dub about 500 historical films of his where the protagonist name is now being ARSE’ed. This is clearly a developing story, watch this space. 

D:Fake news, meant to be satirical. Resemblance to actual real life characters is coincidental and I cannot be proceeded against!

Cult of personality

First blog of the year and am still not writing anything new. The old miasma that’s so seeped into our DNA is still so hard to get rid of that there is forever a backlog.

I would have loved to start off this blog with a story that is set in ancient Greece. A story that is half true, half legend about a generous and wise king, with an unpronounceable name that still sounds intelligent. A story about how the king reserved one day each week for other wise (and even unwise) men from across the kingdom to come and publicially (verbally) humiliate him. Why? Well, to keep him grounded of course! Well, sadly either this king never existed or I am not blessed with enough aesthetics to know or bother with greek fairy tales.

This is something that is a bee in my bonnet, a fly in my ointment etc, where we (especially Indians) have come to confuse actions with the personality behind actions. One of my favourite examples in this department is the ‘evergreen’ actor Dev Anand. We all remember his films growing up, while certainly not of great cinematic quality, thoroughly enjoyable, fun and with a semblance of a story. We also saw fall from grace with duds that I will be unable to even list out. So what happened? Did he somehow lose his talent overnight?

There are other examples. Nicholas Nassim Taleb, author of the immortal “Fooled by randomness”, then there is a Ram Gopal Verma, whose later works have been really very, very ordinary to say the least. Again, what happened? Did they lose talent almost overnight?

I believe the answer lies in the cult of personality that we Indians foster and that is a blot on the age old culture we claim to have inherited. What is the cult of personality? Nothing but transferring the positives of a great decisions, a great piece of art, a great strategic move, a great victory to the personalities behind the actions. To explain this in terms of my examples above, it simply means this: The moment Dev Anand went from “I make good films, hence people like them” to “I make films, hence people like them”, the downfall started. Ditto for others, IMHO.

But what seems to be a micro issue assumes gigantic proportions when a nation as a whole unconsciously subscribes to this transfer of glory, so to speak. A recent example, we all know of that a prominent cricket player, supposedly the best ever, the God of cricket and what not had requested for a tax waiver on a ‘gift’ conveniently given to him by a company whose products he hawked on TV. However anyone pointing this out suddenly becomes a persona non grata in India because the God of cricket cannot be wrong. Which doesn’t make sense! People transfer his talent on the pitch to every other action he performs. So because someone bats or bowls well, he cannot commit tax fraud?

There are several examples in the political class that meet this criterion as well. He or she cannot do anything wrong because they carry a certain surname or because they participated in the independence struggle or some other equally irrelevant reason. This is when this ‘cult of personality’ becomes serious. This is how people get elevated to saint-hood, and we all know once that happens, that person could literally stop his car in the middle of the street, kill the person nearest and proceed to cut, cook and eat his flesh in public, strip down and rub blood all over himself and it will still be ok. Of course I am exaggerating, but you get the gist.

I wonder what it is that pre-disposes Indians to this transfer of glory process. It has to be the feudal mindset that we have inherited from our ancestors How deep is this mindset, you ask? Check out simple everyday epithets, no one is a great actor or a star, he is the ‘baadshah’ or ‘shahenshah’ or ‘king’ of bollywood. We don’t have business heads or monopolists or captains of industry, we have, real estate ‘kings’ or liquor ‘barons’.  We don’t have upcoming politicians, we have ‘yuvraajs’, we don’t have good batsmen from small towns, we have ‘nawabs’ of najafgarhs.To use the latest pop phenomenon as a representative, the names of our IPL teams, start counting now, Chennai Super Kings, Rajasthan Royals, Kings XI Punjab, Royal Challengers, Kolkata Knight Riders and Pune Warriors. If 6 out of 10 teams have a ‘royal’ lineage, it is very reflective of this mindset.

It is this very mindset that gives even someone like Shah Rukh Khan the courage to protest because he was subjected to a routine search in the USA. Unlike India, USA is a bit more meritocratic and hence doesn’t care about his perceived social status. So I can understand his exasperation at being searched, afterall isn’t procedure for the cattle class, the ryot, the junta, the ordinary public to whom God hasn’t handed the rulers crown? It was this very reason that someone like Nusli Wadia can get into a international flight with absolutely no checks (http://www.dnaindia.com/mumbai/report_nusli-wadia-detained-with-gun-in-dubai_1075253, incidentally I was sitting on the seat next to him on the flight), because his glory in business is transferred to his personality. He is royalty and hence not subject to laws. This is what allows some of our Dabang film actors (?) to get away with perhaps murder, literally.

It is this very mindset that allows someone to ask a question like “Do you support Anna Hazare?” instead of “Do you support the Jan Lokpal Bill?”. If we do not check ourselves we may land into a situation of making Anna another Mahatma Gandhi, whom we (oh well our grandparents anyway) obeyed even when we knew he was wrong.

If I was the ‘king’ of India, in honour of this fictitious greek king, I would devote half a day every week to inviting my severest critics to verbally abuse me personally, because only when the personality takes a back seats do people (esp Indians) concentrate on policy. . With so many kings and nawabs, the lure of royalty, the divine right to rule, the divine right, period, is too hard to resist. But resist we must, for the sake of the future of the country. Appreciate or criticise actions and thoughts, but not the person behind them, for if we do that then we can be sure of downfall.

Hypothetical commencement of the third world war

This is my visualization of how third world war commences. This is not a well thought out piece and WW3 is certainly not on my wish-list but I believe in weighing various possibilities given today’s volatile situation across the globe.

Given the unrest in the middle east, this is the most fertile ground for commencement of WW3. WW2 started, as I have learned from Indian history books (so it may be completely wron), when Germans felt insulted and alienated by the world community. Hitler sought to project an image of a superior race with other races either being killed or being made subservient to the Aryans (that he thought his race was).

Think about it for a second, don’t we have a similar situation in the middle east today? A whole bunch of people feel the non-believers are harassing them. They feel alienated notwithstanding some of their own weakness in assimilating with other cultures. The most recent example of this lack of assimilation is from Switzerland where Muslims want the flag changed because they don’t ‘like’ the cross! (http://english.pravda.ru/world/europe/12-10-2011/119306-switzerland-0/).

The other aspect, ie. Superiority complex is also already present, with all other faiths and paths being called “of the devil” and “false” and “satanic” by the hardline Islamic clergy.

All that this region lacks is a trigger and a flag bearer to lead the war. Could it be Iran and its strong leader? I don’t think so. Iranians are Shia and as such are much discriminated against. Plus the richest power Saudi Arabia is a pawn in US hands. I think the war will begin between India and Pakistan. This is also the reason I write this, to increase awareness of this possibility so that India may prepare itself for a long and arduous journey ahead that many of today’s “big boss” watching citizens are ill fitted for.

This is how it will go down:

Sooner or later, the U.S. is going to attack the north western border of Pakistan to stop the Pakistani army and the ISI from supporting Islamic terrorists. Already statements from Hillary Clinton, the army chiefs and some U.S. senators on their growing “frustration” with Pakistan are quite telling.

Pakistani army too feeble to respond on it own will want to draw its benefactor China into the fray. But China is not going to go against the U.S., so Pakistan must first bring India into the proceedings and it knows this. So Pakistani army will raise the bogey of how India helped fuel American planes or how it gave on the ground intelligence to the Americans and use this pretext to fire rockets into India or carry out 26/11 style terrorist attacks. India, scared as this government is, will have to respond due to public opinion and will send its army to take out terrorist camps across the border and in PoK.

We already credibly know that PoK is controlled by the Chinese and India will have to fight with the PLA in PoK. This will inflame China but it cant do anything directly since officially it has nothing to do with the PoK. So China will get Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka to respond to India under some pretext of the other. Sri Lanka already has the LTTE issue with India and Bangladesh has the border issue so finding reasons will not be difficult. Notably, these are relations that China cultivated when the Congress foreign minister was busy reading wrong speeches in the parliament. J

These countries hardly have an army to speak of, but they will be supplied with enough tanks and rockets and guns by China to make it a contest with India. Pakistan will take advantage of India’s predicament and invade us in Kashmir, Punjab and the Rann of Kutch. India will continue to fight on three fronts (North, East and South) fruitlessly. Eventually the political einsteins will realize that this is a losing battle as long as the supply chains to these four countries are not disrupted. The supply chain to Sri Lanka may be cut off by the navy, but the supply chain to Nepal and Bangladesh will invariable see the Indian army attacking some part of China. This will China the reason it needs to invade India with all the weapons it made while Indian politicians were busy counting the loot from the 2G give-away.

At this point, India will begin to lose territory, with significant parts of Arunachal Pradesh, Punjab, Gujarat, and almost all the North-Eastern states taken over and shared between Pakistan and China. India will have no option but to ask help from NATO, this will draw in western powers into war. Rapidly Islamic countries will project this as a war between angels and demons (with themselves as angels, obviously) and pledge support to Pakistan. While Saudis can do as much damage on the battlefield as a eunuch in a harem, that will not prevent them from selling fuel to the ‘God’s army’ and giving cash. Iran, which has so far been a friend to India, may use this an opportunity to ingratiate itself to the rest of the Islamic world and join their side.

With America in the fray, China will ask North Korea to attack Indian battleships that are keeping Sri Lanka in check. North Korea will then ‘preemptively’ attack South Korea and Japan to ensure that it can carry out its own operations against India in peace. China may use the proceedings to take over Taiwan, finally.

At this point local unrest will hit a lot of countries given the projection of this war as a ‘holy’ war (notwithstanding China that is an atheistic country). England will be first to withdraw from international conflict to concentrate on a domestic uprising that has come about as a result of a sustained demographic change. Alas, it will be too late for the Queen’s country to control its populace then and will agree to an uneasy truce with its own citizens on the premise that it will not side with the allies in this ‘holy war’.

Russia will choose to remain neutral in the war willing to supply anyone with money, gas, petrol, expertise and weapons. The war will end in stalemate naturally. Japan and South Korea will be completely devastated, Taiwan will be a part of China. Most of India’s north-east, north and north-west will be taken over by Pakistan and China. Pakistan, China, India and the U.S. will suffer exceptionally heavy damage. Russia will emerge as the new world superpower while U.S. and China, go into slow decline like what happened to the U.K. after WW2.

This is a hypothetical piece and no offense meant to any religion, so please don’t cut off my hands for typing this, no offense meant to the CONgress, so please don’t sue me.  I retract everything as I type it.

Faking News: Congress proposes fuel adulteration as solution for inflation

Harrowed by the never-ending corruption cases and uncontrollable inflationary pressures, the government is facing new protests over the most recent increase in fuel prices. Towards this end a high-level meeting chaired by Sonia Gandhi, UPA’s cabinet committee proposed the legalisation of fuel adulteration as the most effective solution for the problem.

Ex-Finance Minister Chidambaram was the first to meet mediapersons to explain the ground-breaking decision. “The law of demand and supply is the most fundamental building block of economics that I was taught in Harvard. See, India demands ‘x’ litres of petrol every year but only a lower, ‘y’, litres are available. This structural mismatch causes equilibrium to happen at a higher price point straining the public purse. The only way to keep prices stable then is to increase the availability of petrol. Since we have no magic wand, like the honourable Prime Minister has repeatedly clarified earlier, why not use adulteration agents to expand the supply of fuel”. Chidambaram continued “the beauty of the decision is that it simultaneously solves a lot of criminal and corruption issues as well and will hit a chord with the youth of today. With adulteration legalised, various criminal cases such as the burning of the municipal officer and the murder of a journalist recently can be closed without unnecessary arrests.”

In the aftermath of this landmark decision, it was after a long time that a confident Congress faced the opposition in the Lok Sabha. UPA spokesperson, Kapil Sibal, said that since no additional fuel would be imported to meet demand, this move would lead to a zero-loss to the exchequer. Rahul Gandhi, interrupted Zero Hour in the Lok Sabha to argue pointedly that since there are two Indias, why could there not be two fuels for the country – adulterated and unadulterated. He further proposed snatching the initiative and making constitutional changes to similarly regularise criminal activity and take workload off the various courts in the country. Only the Prime Minister Mr. Manmohan Singh seemed a bit surprised with the move and gave the impression of being left completely out of the loop on decisions being taken by his government. Digvijaya Singh when contacted for comments on the new fuel policy said “Hindus are the biggest threat to the world today. Unless dangerous people such as Baba Ramdev and Anna Hazare are not dealt with a firm hand India cannot hope to be a superpower. The cry to hang convicted terrorists like Afzal Guru and Ajmal Kasab only highlights the communal nature of the RSS and I have phone call transcripts to prove their involvement in the 9/11 attacks on the U.S.A.” While this comment seems out of place, media is now accustomed to it being repeated in response to any question that is asked of Mr. Singh.

The opposition is flabbergasted with the governments response and self-congratulatory attitude even as small time fuel adulterators reposed their faith in the elected government. There is already talk on publicising this unique decision as Rahul baba’s brainchild to launch him on the national stage in 2014 as a Prime Ministerial candidate.




--this is a work of fiction, all references to people living/dead or appearing to be living/ dead are coincidental and not meant to hurt their sentiments (in other words, I am perhaps an idiot for thinking free speech is allowed in India but please dont arrest me under the new cyber law)