How Socialism leads to dictatorship? – A Dummies guide

Socialism starts with a welfare state. People enjoy largesse from the government on several things, education, medicines, etc. But they don’t realise that government doesn’t have any money of its own…there is no such thing as ‘public money’. The government funds this largesse by expanding taxes as much as possible. Soon even that money runs out as more schemes are announced and population and their demand increases.

Then the government, whose sole purpose is to stay in power (it almost always is isn’t it?), and, running short of money unable to increase taxes beyond a point, decides to divide the country into a vote-banks. It identified a group that will vote en-bloc and concentrates the spending on just that group. So soon all the people are paying taxes but a small group of people are enjoying the benefits. This leads to a great social divide and both sides become bitter. The vote bank group continues to vote the government into power knowing that it is getting undue benefit at the cost of the country as a whole. At this point the government begins ridiculous spending programmes like for religious festivals of the vote block community etc.

Soon even this amount of money is not enough as the government needs to keep bettering what it spends on its people and especially the vote bank. The spending is categorised as ‘social spend’ to lend it an air of acceptability, respectability, holier-than-thou attitude and even martyrdom. It makes it difficult for the opposition to interrupt. I mean already the opposition guys have sat in opposition for so long they are scared to be seen anti-people. What it really is, is basically bribing a section of the population at the cost of the larger interests of the country to continue to earn votes. This is the point where reservations and Prime Ministerial statements like “religion xyz has first rights to country’s resources” start gathering FAST pace.

Then the government begins deficit financing, ie borrowing money to continue to spend on stupid and irresponsible schemes and appeasement. With people already taxed out and morale at a minimum the loans are never re-paid and the deficits continue to widen. In several years they reach a point where the government needs to borrow money to just pay the interest on its loans. This becomes a domestic debt trap. At this point the government begs other countries for money. This brings to sovereignty of the country into question as other countries begin to have a higher say in how the country should be run and dictate local social policy and may try to even effect demographic changes.

After a point the government is in a financial state beyond repair and pawns important national assets with other countries (India had been in this stage in 1988-1991). As the government has continued to borrow heavily there is no money left for risk takers and businessmen to setup any industry. Now the country is caught up in high debt, low living standards, high unemployment, international servitude and falling GDP.

Now the government faced with the prospect of losing elections and indeed driving the country into bankruptcy decides to take some hard steps. It forms a select committee and empowered committee and what-not committee and devises a ‘master plan’. However the master plan or the plan requires absolute compliance from everyone or else the country will fail (its on the precipice now isn’t it?). For this purpose new civil servants are taken on to monitor progress, the government sets curbs on freedom of speech to avoid dissent, lest the plan not be bought by the gullible public. Newspapers have a civil servant sitting with the editor to ensure that no news item calls the ‘plan’ into doubt. Production quotas are implemented, consumption quotas are implemented and a ration card is given. People’s lives, what they eat, what they study, where they work and everything else is decided by the government. Taxes are raised sky high (India had Income taxe of 97.5% under the Indira government, if I am not mistaken?).

Soon even for small things, people need to get permission of their local civil servant. To get water, food, milk, medicines, doctors appointment, drivers license, gas, fuel, power, buying a house, making changes to a house, school admission, even to drink a pint of beer…virtually everything! Afterall the ‘plan’ is very sensitive and quotas need to be guarded VERY carefully. Plus it’s the patriotic thing to do! This makes a local officer powerful enough to harass literally anyone. Soon he begins to demand favours from people who come to him for permits, soon permits change into little bribe money, soon little bribe money changes to a LOT of bribe money. While the relatively better off can pay, most people cant. This leads a higher social divide where the opposite was the case. The high tax rate begins to incite tax avoidance and people begin to hide money, or send it to swiss banks. This is not difficult since a corrupt civil servant can be found anywhere.

Soon the industrialists who were providing employment and were helping country to grow are bankrupt (no loans, no demand and excessive civil servant interference!) and the government takes over their businesses. Many-a-times a few key industries are taken over and un-strategic industries are left to run at only a nominal profit. India has privatised banking and airline sector at points in history. This creates further fear…the industrialists now decide to pander to government whims, “or else…” they are privatised,, because the ‘plan’ requires it, and it’s the patriotic thing to do.

To ensure compliance by the public the government implements draconian laws and subverts the justice system. All this is still cloaked in the veil of serving the motherland, saving the motherland and patriotism. This makes it difficult for anyone to make a politically correct argument against this. By this time the vote bank community has realised it folly in putting its vote bank credentials (religion, caste, income group, regional identity) ahead of the country, but now sadly its too late.

Now that the administrative and judiciary branches of the country are completely subverted, the government turns its attention to the military. This is one branch that the policy makers badly need to ensure discipline is enforced with a iron fist. After all the grand ‘plan’ is still in intensive care and cant tolerate dissent…and it is the patriotic thing to defend the plan at ALL or ANY cost. So the armed forces are elevated to a great height. It gets unlimited funds for which no accounts are asked for. The army chiefs begin a fiefdom and live the lavish life. No questions asked. In return they squash whatever protests are put up. The deaths and protests are never reported as by now only state owned media remains.

Finally the politician’s attention turns to the legislative bodies. Elections CANT be held in such trying times…the country would never be able to handle the expense…plus if someone else got elected how would the all important ’plan’ be implemented?! No no that wont be right, the ‘plan’ is necessary for the country! Not having elections is the patriotic thing to do. So administration shifts to a small group of people whose authority cannot be challenged. Their credentials are secret and activities even more so. Opposition is brutally quelled and more and more power is centralised. Note that these few people live lavish lifestyles to ensure that they are mentally limber to implement the ‘plan’. This group of self-sacrificing people running the county is called…lets say…”the politburo”.

Now several years have passed and no one really remembers what the plan really was or what it was supposed to achieve. The systems, businesses and economy have been completely destroyed by this point. People are hungry, inflation is high and there is anarchy. Now details of the ‘plan’ are completely forgotten and quelling the growing dissent becomes the priority. After all, any protests or violence may lead to unnecessary deaths of innocent people. So to stop that is the government’s patriotic duty. The army is called onto the streets, even as internal bickering on the best way to handle the situation tears the politburo apart. The members then decide to vest the power to implement the ‘plan’ (this is now just a word…even the original papers are lost in some civil servants file…which is just as well as the plan is hardly applicable to current time anyway) to a powerful leader. Someone who is feared and who would be obeyed. The most likely choice would be either some thug in the current politburo or the army chief who has had long experience in quelling protests. Soon all powers are handed over and either the politburo members are ‘eliminated’ or made irrelevant or just travel to live in Switzerland where their hard earned money of so many years is stashed anyway. Now the country is in dictatorship.

This is how a country moves from socialism to dictatorship in a few years. It is up to people to decide what they want…a free market economy (NOT laissez faire) which survives on mutual respect and profit, where we have maximum governance and minimum government, freedom of speech or do we proceed on a path where perhaps our grand daughters virginity will need to be bartered to some unscrupulous civil servant for a gas connection? Nip socialism in the bud, let all vote bank people know, the largesse they enjoy is the proverbial last supper.


(Of course I am not saying this will always happen or all vote banks will respond or behave in the same way.All I am saying is that IMHO socialism carried to a certain degree has the potentional of being incredibly dictatorial and destructive.)

The Third Front That No One Is Talking About

The country finds itself at crossroads today. We have an incredibly incompetent and allegedly the most corrupt government in power. But at the same time the opposition, especially the BJP, is such that it hardly inspires confidence. My disdain for the current leadership and direction of the BJP is well known thanks to my earlier blogs and I will not waste time on the same. But I will again highlight how Nitin Gadkari seems to be almost childishly blocking Narendra Modi from progressing politically. If there is genuinely an issue with Modiji that makes him a bad choice for PM-ship, then the BJP is doing a really bad job of communicating it to him and its supporters. For now, it is IMHO a clear case of pettiness on the part of BJP’s current leadership coterie. Other points on how BJP seems to be in cahoots with the Congress has already been covered in my last blog post.

Anyway, so for a die-hard nationalist like me, BJP is no longer the patriotic choice versus the Congress at worst, or atleast the margin between the two has been substantially reduced. This brings one to the much publicised, but never realised third-front. I think there is a possibility of a third front formation, but its not like the one that’s traditionally understood, ie a Left led jirga. I think a very sturdy third front can be formed in such a way that will also factor in the concerns I had raised in earlier blog on how regionalism is taking hold in India. The third front will be led by Narendra Modi.

My hypothetical playbook reads thus: Narendra Modi wins a thumping majority in the upcoming Gujarat state elections underlining his development led agenda. Around the same time the courts exonerate Modi from all the false charges being made by the foreign funded NGO milieu. If at that point Nitin and gang continues obstruct Narendra bhai, he will split away from the BJP and bring a lot of like minded people into his fold. His Sadbhavana fasts were nothing more than tests to check out his own political alliances. Here are the people I think who will support Modi (note I don’t think Modiji will opt for the CONgress or any lame third front given his strong RSS-fuelled patriotic credentials):

1)      Vasundhara Raje in Rajasthan: She is a firebrand leader and well wedded to a nationalist agenda. She has also been facing problems with Nitin Gadkari who seems to be trying to imbibe Congress culture into the BJP. Rajasthan sends 25 seats to the Lok Sabha and given the current Congress misrule there, she is likely to sweep the state on her own (which she will have to if she splits from the BJP thanks to mismanagement).

2)      BS Yeddyurappa in Karnataka: Currently caught up in corruption cases and a whipping boy for both the BJP and the CONgress. I am not by any means defending any corruption he has done, only pointing out that he has issues with Nitin Gadkari and a mass following. Karnataka sends 28 seats to the Lok Sabha. BSY is also an RSS man and will not want to join Congress just for the sake of power esp given that it’s a sinking ship.

3)      Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab: SAD is one of the few parties that had sent its representatives to Modi’s Sadbhavana yatra. SAD is a dharmic culture based party and will clearly support Modi in an independent bid for PM’s post. Punjab sends 13 seats to the Lok Sabha. Judging from its assembly tally, also likely to sweep polls.

4)      Jayalalitha in TN: Jaya is another leader who had sent her people to Modi’s Sadbhavana rally thus indicating her support. In the view of an long time follower of Indian politics and cinema (with whom I checked), it was Jaya who moved MGR from his path of atheistic/anti-hindu beliefs and thus wont be opposed to the idea of Modi as PM. TN sends 39 seats to the Lok Sabha and is likely to sweep state polls, especially if they are held quickly.

5)      Mayawati in UP: Yes, this is a surprising one but I think Mayawati is too politically astute to oppose Modi. Ideologically she is flexible. Everyone knows how she shifted her slogan from “Tilak tarazoo aur talwar, inko maro joote chaar” to “Haathi nahin Ganesh hain, Brahma, Vishnu, Mahesh hain”. She also has issues with the Congress government and isn’t a visible minority appeaser (dalits being her vote bank) making her a strong candidate to support Modi. Plus I think she may enjoy a good personal equation with Modiji himself. This way she can also been seen to be supporting a third front rather than the Congress or the BJP which helps protect her own constituency (after all Modi isn’t a Brahmin right? He is just highly qualified and capable to run this country). Given the mismanagement by Akhilesh Yadav of SP, in just a few months, Mayawati is likely to sweep elections when they are held. UP sends a massive 80 seats to the Lok Sabha.

6)      Biju Janata Dal in Orissa: The personal equation between Naveen Patnaik, Jayalalitha and Modiji is well known. They have taken stands together on various issues, most notable being the NCTC recently. Naveen has a protected vote in Orissa and will see that he will likely gain more importance in a third front led by Modi rather than being an also ran with Congress and BJP. Orissa sends 21 seats to the Lok Sabha.

7)      Shiv Sena and MNS in Maharashtra: SS and MNS are currently warring factions of the same family but perhaps Modi is best placed to bring them together for a higher, national cause. Bal Thackeray clearly has affinity for Hindutva as even originally he could have fashioned SS as a Maratha party and been just as popular without bringing Hindutva into the equation. But he didn’t, he did bring religion into it underlining his affinity and respect for his religion. MNS chief Raj Thackeray is IMHO the most capable, young leader at the state level today. His respect for Modiji is well known and had recently travelled to Gujarat to take inspiration from Modiji and mentions his visit in almost all his speeches. SS and MNS if they behave responsibly and divide seats between themselves have the potential to sweep Maharashtra elections. Maharashtra sends 48 seats to the Lok Sabha.

8)      Uma Bharti in MP and Parrikar in Goa: Uma Bharti is a fire brand leader who is a mass mobiliser. She may be disappointed by the Congress-lite nature of BJP today and will probably support Modiji. She specialises in Madhya Pradesh that sends 29 seats to the Lok Sabha. Manohar Parrikar is a great young leader for BJP and leads Goa (2 seats in Lok Sabha). He is also an RSS guy and will support Modi if push comes to shove.

The total of these seats plus 26 seats in Gujarat (that Modi will sweep) comes to about 311. A massive number. Even excluding MP and Karnataka that don’t have a strong leader or are burdened with corruption allegations, the number of seats is high at 254. Thus a Narendra Modi-led third front will be a formidable force even if it wins half of these seats. If it does win 160-180 seats, then who will Mamta-didi support? Who will the BJP (whats left of it) support? Who will small parties like NCP support? Where will BJP leaders in Bihar, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand and Uttarakhand swing? In my view, if Modiji is able to project a strong value and culture based leadership his third front can win over 300 seats.

In addition to just seats, Narendra Modi has the backing of a stalwart like Dr.Subramanian Swamy (the only other suitable PM candidate in the NDA, IMHO). While Dr. Swamy does not have a party mechanism in place now, his service to the country in the 2G case is well known and he may well win 15-20 seats from various parts of the country should be judiciously select seats and candidates, which I believe he will.

So based on my analysis, Modiji can divorce from the BJP and still manage to emerge as the PM candidate on his own. He is not a burden on the BJP, the current BJP is a burden on him!

But the objective of my analysis is not to encourage Modiji to break-up from the BJP. Personally I hope he stays with BJP and becomes their PM candidate and also rids BJP of false/compromised that it has and restore it to its original status of a “party with a difference”. The objective and to an extent conclusion of my blog is that BJP, even such state as it is in today, will have no other alternative than anointing Modiji as its PM candidate. It should know if it does otherwise, Modiji can just separate and become a PM on his own, its possible. After all in politics, I have given up expecting good sense and morality (even from the BJP), only blackmail works and Modiji has enough ammunition.

BJP: An opposition in absence

I don’t know how to start or end this blog, primarily I wonder if this should have a cynical overtone or one of hope. Its is very difficult when dealing with this subject solely because the monumental scale of political missteps by the BJP have lead even very favourable commentators like me wonder if its merely incompetence or is there something more sinister behind it. I have been a long time fan of the party…a voter as well, but I feel extremely betrayed with how the party has changed for the worse over the last 10-12 years. I will rant…and I rant for my sanity as much as for the good of the party and hence the country. I see a whole bunch of BJP voters on social media who censure anyone who criticise the BJP…these lot are your biggest enemies. They want to convert BJP into another Congress where something’s are above reproach. But you see the ruling family elite getting disappointed in elections despite no bad thing being allowed to be said about them. The other logic of these well-meaning fools is that BJP is better than the Congress so lets have them. I agree, but only partly. The way it is today, the BJP in my perception is EXACTLY like the Congress and while clearly less corrupt I am not confident that it will do the things that made BJP…’BJP’. So its possible I have been harsh, or maybe got some of my facts/ opinions wrong (though I don’t think so), but I hope the party and all its supporters understand the essence of this blaog/ rant and hope some good comes out of it.

On April 6, 2012, the BJP completed 32 years of existence (almost as old as me). It began its journey as a party with a difference, a true democratic and meritocratic setup in an era when Congress sycophancy was at its zenith. It had a strong ideological backbone with its cadre picked from the RSS, an organisation that is unparalleled in the world for its selfless service. It gave voice to the law abiding middle class hindu who had so far been (and arguably still remain) a milking cow for the government and nothing more. It was based on the need to create a true social renaissance based on equality rather than narrow parochial interests. The relatively austere lives of its leaders and its well educated cadre was a key positive going for the party. The party’s upswing came when it supported the Ram Janmabhoomi struggle and it was placed into powers moving from a mere 2 seats in the Lok Sabha to heading a ruling coalition for 5-6 years which saw a golden period in India’s economy and social outlook.

However, all this is now is as relevant as Gandhi and Patel are relevant to today’s Congress. The BJP today is no longer the same BJP we came to know, respect and support. Its is a deeply decaying institution run by leaders who seem, at best, unable to manage it. What remained BJP’s once almost refreshing politics-lite, ‘non-chaalu’ perception has now been stretched to point were people wonder, is it just that, or incompetence of something else?

Several questionable things have happened in the recent (and distant) past:

Subramanian Swamy’s allegation that the scion of India’s self appointed ‘first family’ was arrested at an American airport (Boston) for carrying US$160K in cash the origins of which he was not able to explain. While this was an ace chance for the BJP to finish of its main opposition, apparently its Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee (ABV) deputed his senior most officials (was it Brajesh Mishra?) to ensure the young man was let off and that the news was not reported by the media. If true, this is a serious charge.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMQ6ba8TXH8&feature=relmfu

While the ABV government was unquestionably the least corrupt and the most successful government in Indian history, the fact is that BJP did not pursue the Bofors case (again where the role of the ‘first family’ was suspect) for inexplicable reasons. ABV is currently incapacitated and the onus of defending this action (or lack of it) has fallen on its current leadership who is badly floundering at it. Anyone can watch Arun Jaitley’s recent interview with Karan Thapar and form their own judgement but it is indeed hard to believe that a government was unable to get to the bottom of a well investigated defence scam in over five years! Arun Jaitley tries to get away implying IMHO that CBI is an independent agency…but isn’t he accusing CBI of being exactly the opposite today? So was either incompetence or collusion or was an independent CBI dragging its feet and your government was unable or unwilling to get a move on? However, Arun Jaitley, articulate as he is, cant wish away reports that George Fernandes was ordered by ABV to not investigate the Gandhi family.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EhCz0DL9e1Q

I only mention issues such as Uniform Civil Code, Ram Janmabhoomi movement and Article 370, all of which BJP claimed to be very close to their heart, that BJP made no move on during its rule in India. They claim that it was ideological differences with its coalition partners that prevented them from doing so. For now I give them the benefit of doubt though questions arise on what is the point of being in power if the very issues that put you in power are going to be thrown away for the sake of power?! How do you remain a party with a difference then? But let us leave that for now.

Each one of these instances cost us, and cost us dearly (in fact on a back of envelope gold parity calculation suggests that in current value the Rs64 crore Bofors scam is actually worth over Rs1,311 crore), there can be no two ways about that. Why ABV favoured the first family, if he did, was it out of goodness of his heart  or was there some quid pro quo, was there a secret arrangement between BJP and Congress (as Karan Thapar suggests in the interview), and what was the reason for the genesis of such an agreement. BJP cannot excuse these questions…these are not questions of legal wrangling or spin, these raise serious issue on the ‘character’ of some leaders. But BJP will perhaps want to say this is history…forget it…move on…fine…lets come closer in time then.

In early 2011, the BJP commissioned a task force comprised of the who’s who of the financial and intellectual elite of Indian nationalists. This group released a report 'Indian Black Money Abroad in Secret Banks and Tax Havens' which reportedly made certain suggestions about the Gandhi family’s wealth being parked abroad in an illegal manner. No doubt these reports distressed Soniaji and she complained to LK Advani to which Advani promptly apologised to her. http://www.rediff.com/news/report/text-of-advanis-regret-letter-to-sonia-gandhi/20110218.htm

Why did such a senior leader feel the need to apologise on this issue? If the report was malicious, the Congress had a horde of very senior lawyers who could have proven it false in a court of law, why did LKA feel the need to sap the morale of his own team that had no doubt worked hard on putting names to numbers and dislayed admirable courage in coming up with this publication? You opened yourself up for jibes from your own younger colleagues in BJP and even from people like Ambika Soni who are no where close to you in political stature. This act indeed rings alarm bells for ordinary citizens, doesn’t it?

While Narendra Modi is clearly the tallest leader in your party today, with a proven clean image and a vote winner, why has the BJP refused to let him campaign in states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh? Clearly the lame reasons given like Modiji being busy are obviously false, or has BJP failed to manage people’s perceptions again? Why cant BJP see the obvious gameplan of its ‘friends’ like SAD and JD(U) who want to increase their own vote base in their home states at the cost of national parties like yourself. While Rahul Gandhi clearly went wrong in the specifics, his larger plan of not depending on any regional satrap in winning elections makes a lot of sense. Instead of getting your vote winners to campaign why is BJP pandering to parochial interests? Why is there so much internal egos and jealousy that is sidelining the only true Prime Ministerial candidate that BJP has! Does Nitin Gadkari or LKA genuinely believe they can be serious contenders for the PM post? That is a joke. If the BJP has any political sense it will immediately anoint Modiji as its PM candidate and  work towards establishing him as a national figure.

The last 3 years has been a gold mine in terms of scams that any ‘true’ opposition party would simply relish, but which of these scams below, has the BJP been instrumental in bringing to light. When I ask ‘bringing to light’ I do not expect a reply like “if you see my supplementary to the concerned minister on the xyz date…” I mean a proper bringing to light, ie filing cases, making speeches to educate people, talking to journos, going on an all out offensive without fear:

The ineligibility of Sonia Gandhi to become PM - single handed Herculean effort by Dr. Subramanian Swamy

The CWG scam – brought out by Times Now and a couple other news channels/ CAG

The 2G scam – single handed Herculean effort by Dr. Subramanian Swamy corroborated by CAG

EVM scam (may have cost BJP’s re-election) – Dr. Subramanian Swamy

Assorted (yet serious) allegations against the Gandhi family and Chidambaram – Dr. Subramanian Swamy

The coal scam (USD400bn) – Chauthi Duniya and CAG

Pratibha Patil’s house – Social media followed by mainsteam media (MSM)

Abhishek Singhvi Sex Scandal – an anonymous internet user while you remained like MSM completely mum

Defence deal scandals – General VK Singh and social media/ MSM

Assorted temple land/ other land misappropriations and scams – MSM (if that)

The entire black money/ corruption/ Lokpal debate is headed by the Brahma, Vishnu, Mahesh of Anna Hazare, Baba Ramdev and Dr. Swamy. Where is BJP?

What is most shocking is that BJP is actually collaborating with the Congress on gagging social media. This raises an eyebrow to say the least on Nitin Gadkari’s intentions, afterall is the BJP in favour of gagging the very social media that has arguably benefited it the most?!

I am probably missing a few dozen more scandals here, but you get the gist. Can you tell your voters which one of these scandals was unearthed by BJP or which is the one cause where your president Nitin Gadkari can say, “yes this is our baby, we unearthed it or we are putting the government on the backfoot on this or we can be identified as the primary opposition in this scam”. You BJP are nowhere. You are either unwilling to unable to take on the Congress or you are unwilling or unable to manage peoples perceptions. Both cases are unforgivable in public life. Your biggest issue is the last gaffe on the selection of the next President of India…Congress did not have enough seats, but BJP could still not gather enough to put them on the backfoot. Your explanation cannot be that Congress bribed everyone, for if everyone is bikau then there is not need for a parliament at all. Why could you not convince other parties to vote for an eminently suitable candidate like Dr. Abdul Kalam? Did you not try, or did you try but your absolutely best efforts are not enough? I don’t know which scenario is scarier! I can go on and on listing BJP’s political mis-steps. It has gotten to the point where people on social media do not even consider you an opposition any more…worse they consider you to be in cahoots with the Congress, a some sort of a B-Team.

In every crisis (and BJP is in crisis) there is an opportunity. Clearly Nitin Gadkari, while may be a great person individually, is not inspiring leadership. It is the public’s perception that he has for his own narrow interests tried to side-line your most respected, effective and popular leader – Narendra Modi. If he claims the victory in recent state elections as his own then he is clearly confusing luck for talent. BJP has managed to win the non-Congress vote and has not managed to create a pro-BJP vote. This explains the party’s loss in Uttar Pradesh (once your bastion) where in your own estimation you lost because you could not prove yourself to be viable alternative to the BSP, in other words people didn’t think you could win, in more other words, people think you have miserably failed in creating your own constituency…you have not created a pro-BJP vote bank. BJP still has a great support base (myself included), it will vote for you but its not enough, you need to add numbers. BJP has great leaders at the state level, Narendra Modi, Raman Singh, Parrikar are some that come to mind. What BJP needs is a breath of fresh air at the top, perhaps 4-5 leaders at the top can move into advisory roles. Perhaps its also time to change Nitin Gadkari. When I watch TV debates with your leaders (you know which ones), they seem very satisfied with life…I miss the fire that I once saw with LKA and with Pramod Mahajan. It almost feels like the current lot is so scared of losing its chief opposition status that it lacks to guts to go for the jugular. If you are afraid of losing you will never win.

Why cant BJP invite leaders like Govindacharya back into its fold…he doesn’t seem to have any political ambitions but will provide the strong ideological backbone that BJP has lost. The party needs to go back to basics, go back to Hindutva, not necessarily hardline but atleast slightly right of centre. There is a huge bunch of people who don’t like the CONgress brand of politics, but are so disappointed in what BJP has become that they don’t vote. Go back to being the RSS-fuelled BJP and these people, people like me will vote you. Right now you are nothing but Congress-lite and if you continue to be run they way you are, you may not even win 50 seats on your own in Lok Sabha. Look at RJD…when parties lose their identity…they become non entities. If Nitin, LKA, Arun, Sushma, Ravi Shankar Prasad, Rudy and gang truly care for the BJP, they will know when to step out of the way and let true talent move up.

A typical Doorknob Goswami (DG) interview on Times Wow

DG: So Mr.XYZ, are you in favour or not in favour of the proposal by the goverment

XYZ: You see Doorknob...
...
DG: India wants to know Sir...ANSWER

XYZ: Yes, I am just...

DG: Its a direct question, we are asking direct questions tonight...please answer the direct question

XYZ: If you would just let me...

DG: Lets bring our other guest in at this stage

(the other guest is a Doorknob stooge who parrots what Doorknob is pandering)

*XYZ tearing his hair out*

DG: You see sir...no one is buying your argument here...India wants to know Sir...its a simple question...you need to answer

XYZ: I've been trying to...my position is...
(scratching his eyes out by now)

DG: India is asking tonight, we have viewers writing in they are all agreeing with me...

XYZ: (decides to end niceties and answer ASAP) I am in favor of the proposal...

DG: YOU ARE AVOIDING THE QUESTION...YOU ARE AVOIDING THE QUESTION....(shaking head vigourously) PLEASE ANSWER THE QUESTION!

XYZ: I...just...did....I support the proposal

DG: (in a very patronising tone) Sir, in 1987, in the Chitagong Sahitya Samagam, you had clearly articulated a position saying that you would support the government. Why will you not take a similar unambiguous position on Times Wow tonight...India is watching.

XYZ: But..I havent changed my position..what I am saying is...

DG: I have all the papers here,tonight I have papers, if the camera can focus in for all to see. On Viewshour tonight, we are asking very direct question. This is your speech at that function.

XYZ: (completely frustrated and frothing at the mouth) I already...

DG: Answer the question Yes or no, no space for confusion on this channel. I have facts with me tonight. No one can disagree with me , its in black and white.

XYZ: (gives up) I am sorry I cannot take part in a facetitious debate like this...(leaves)

DG: (Smiling triumphantly) So Mr.XYZ has chosen to leave...HE HAS DODGED THE QUESTION...perhaps to go to another channel that will pander to his whims. that will not ask the difficult questions. We just do our jobs, we dont go around in circles, we dont obfuscate the issues, we dont pretend to know what the issues are...if it makes people uncomfortable then so be it.

*clearly in a lighter vein and no intent to insult...not liable for legal action*

Why the BJP faces an uphill battle next general elections...

The recent U.P. poll results have come somewhat as a jolt to the BJP. UP sends 85 seats to the 543 member Lok Sabha and is thus the key swing state. Here, people have favoured local politicians irrespective of how corrupt they are. The face saving explanation from the BJP (and indeed the CONgress) has been that people voted for the best alternative replacement to Mayawati and we did not instil confidence that we would win.

The scary explanation is that people are turning parochial and voting their own, almost back to the dark ages of caste-ism. A less scary explanation is accepting the one by the BJP and CONgress. Even assuming the second explanation to be correct, BJP facing an uphill task in 2014 (or is it 2012?) elections.

Politicians are a rare breed of individuals who are driven solely by greed for money and power, some might say. If this is true, then ‘ideology’ is nothing more the thin veil than hides the ugly nakedness underneath. If the BJP is unable to assert its electoral supremacy, there is no reason why parties such as the Janata Dal (United) of Nitish Kumar and Sharad Yadav will stick with it. Similarly, the Akali Dal may decide to break away. These local outfits have never stopped dreaming of a grand third front which will represent local interests and IMHO be little more than a jirga of the sort we see in the wild north west regions of Pakistan and in Afghanistan. Short of another CONgress government, there can be nothing worse for India. Nitish appears to fancy himself as the Prime Minister, so does Jayalalitha, so does Biju Patnaik to name a few that immediately come to mind. There can be no stability where a clear leader does not exist.

The BJP is clearly contributing to the issue by its own ego clashes and leadership issues. The tallest leader in the party is clearly Narendra Modi, but Nitin Gadkari and his band of merry men (and women?) are doing their utmost to insult Modi. Narendra bhai was also deliberately kept away from campaigning in all election states (and also Bihar when hustings were underway there). I have little doubt that he alone could have converted 50 seats for the BJP, but Nitin in all is wide wisdom has chosen to put ego in front of the country. Which isn’t surprising, given my base assumption of politicians being a rare breed indeed.

So BJP is not going to be a serious contender in Bihar, where Nitish will take over as many seats as he can from their coalition and may even contest separately when the time comes. Punjab with the reduced tally of the national party faces the same issue. So where does the BJP compete on its on terms and with some sort of a toe-hold in the state? I have identified the following: Goa (2), Gujarat (26), Haryana (10), Himachal (4), Karnataka (28), Madhya Pradesh (40), Maharashtra (48), Rajasthan (25), Uttar Pradesh (85) and Delhi (7). Therefore, if the BJP still harbours dream of forming a majority government, it has to win 272 seats of the 275, maybe 285 seats that it has atleast some fighting chance in. I am including UP, assuming what Gadkari says is correct ie people vote for a viable alternative, in state elections that alternative was Samajwadi Party so at the national level it will be the BJP. Bihar will be dominated by Nitish, Southern states by local parties, north-eastern states by local parties and Congress. Punjab by the Badals. W. Bengal by Mamta-didi, who baulks at even sharing the dias with BJP at neutral events. Already people in SAD are hinting at trying to make a third front. Nitish appears as if he is almost out of the door (Sharad Yadav virtually distanced himself from the NDA already). We all know Mamta is a loose canon who feels strait-jacketed in the Congress-led UPA.

The likelihood of BJP making it to even 200 seats after competing in 275-odd is slim at best. BJP has what…116 seats in the Lok Sabha now? If things continue in this vein, it will be reduced to below 100 for sure in the next elections. Even if the BJP still manages to become the biggest party in the NDA (assuming the NDA still does exist) its margin with no.2 will be much slimmer and its room to get its policy and ideology through non-existent.

It is perhaps time for BJP to take a leaf out of Rahul Gandhi’s book and instead of concentrating on ridiculing him, start to build a credible base in even ‘friendly’ states where it seems to have become lazy and left winning up to the coalition partner (Punjab being the case in point). To be fair, BJP had decided to go it alone in UP and that was an eye opener for it, lets hope it learns fast and builds a base again before its partners that are firmly behind it now, stab it in the back.

Election results have India on a razor's edge?

A vacuum always gets filled, is colloquially considered an immutable law of physics. And it’s so true in public life as well, as recently witnessed in the state elections in India. The bigger question is “who fills it?” The nearest available alternative, Indian public seems to say.

I believe that while a trend of preferring local leaders over national o...nes has been noticed, its import is lost on most analysts. National parties are missing the wood for the trees in trying to justify why they did so badly in states where they did not have a local leader. Atleast the Congress party has a reason, it’s incredibly corrupt and inept. The BJP does not even have that fig leaf and would do well to wake up and smell the proverbial coffee.

The people’s verdict to prefer a local leader over a national one, while desirable in many respects, also has a hint of caste-ism of a higher order. Politicians do what it takes to get them elected, we all know that. So how long is it before they being to wonder. “if my local-ness, is what gets me elected, why should I give a damn about the nation?”. This will reflect adversely in intra-country trade, in taxation, in levels of development and in incredibly irresponsible budgets leading to wholesale bankruptcy. Also, there will be no national leadership in Delhi, just a bunch of narrow-minded local satraps too busy looking after themselves than the nation.

If most states have a leadership like this, the national fabric of the country will undoubtedly be weakened. Already long decades of socialist, Congress rule have ensured that no single ‘national identity’ exists for India. India stands at a very delicate line between order and anarchy, democracy and revolution, Indian-ness and dismemberment. If the BJP is unable to remove its defeatist attitude, the lard surrounding it, the infighting and the greed for power, and its internal egos the country will slip into parochialism. What else can happen if the last nationalist party is unable to rise above itself when the occasion demands it?!

This is a sin we cannot afford especially when all constitutional institutions, the police, and armed forces have been systematically weakened over the last 7-8 years. The time to project a strong national leader is now and the BJP should grasp this moment. If the country slips into a loose arrangement of states, BJP alone will be responsible.
 

Whats reluctance got to do with it?

I find it surprising that all of Congress' popular leaders have been projected as reluctant to lead. I dont know about Indira Gandhi, but perhaps she was also projeected as an obedient daughter reluctantly taking up her fathers' duties?

I know Rajiv Gandhi was projected like this, son not wanting power, but thrust into the national arena and finally agreeing to lead this country out of sheer magn...animity for its poor people.

I know Sonia Gandhi was projected like this. Desh ki bahu, not wanting power, does everyone remember all the CONgress' MP's lining up first at her door and then making speeches one by one in the parliament wasting the tax payers money. I remember Govinda's speech: aapke netrutva mein matrutva hain. Not sure she understood, but then again stranger things have happened.

Rahul Gandhi's entry into politics was on expected lines. He was expected to take the gaddi just like Mukesh Ambani was after Dhirubhai. This took away his chance to be the 'reluctant'leader in the image of his brilliant family members. Perhaps this was the reasong for his failure (amongst many,many, many others)?

Now I see the CONgress spin machine and the 'free' and 'independent' media is projecting Priyanka Gandhi as the reluctant leader. Only there to help her brother handling the responsibilities of home and taking her of her husband and children like a good Indian bahu. I am waiting for the lines to come up outside her house begging her to lead the CONgress. If the 'reluctance' factor has anything to do with the Gandhi victories (and it may because God knows I cant see any other positives),Priyanks many just end up heading the next Indian govt.

 

There is a simple (hence possibly wrong) answer for this studied projection of the first family. It is to do with their understanding of one vital bit the Indian culture. We place the value of sacrifice above all else. The Rai Bahadur's and Sir's and other such title holders during the British Raj are vilified but people who gave their life to the freedom struggle with nothing to show for it are glorified. This not a recent phenomenon, Lord Ram who gave up the world to honour his father's wish is glorified. His brother Bharat who ruled, but reluctantly, and as a steward, is glorified. Karna and Eklavya who gave up divine protection and his right thumb respectively are glorified as is Harishchandra as is Buddha as is Mahavira. The Congress has this pulse of the public and the public has little time for someone who wants to barge into positions of power. It almost seems orchastrated how each member of the first family is cajoled into taking power (with no responsibility) and wielding it as they see fit. Its about time India sees the reality, that only TRUE sacrifice is to be honoured, not a well dramatised sequence for mass consumption.